Abnormally dry conditions began to re-emerge into a portion of Southwest Colorado due to limited precipitation amounts across the region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Abnormally dry conditions began to re-emerge into a portion of Southwest Colorado due to limited precipitation amounts across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 2:33 PM MST, 9 hours 27 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 233 PM MST MON FEB 28 2011 CORRECTED TIME PERIOD FOR THE SHORT TERM .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... VERY LITTLE GOING ON EARLY THIS WEEK AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. MODELS INDICATED A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GFS40 GENERATES SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ECMWF AND NAM BOTH INDICATED INCREASED CLOUDS AND NO PRECIPITATION. GIVEN DIFFERENCES...MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A LARGE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BRINGING IT INLAND AND ACROSS THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECWMF MODELS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12-18 HRS FASTER BY NEXT MONDAY. SMALLER WAVES GET EJECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IN WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE CROSSING THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. NONE LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD BUT THEY SHOULD STILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE MTNS...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS WILL BE THE MOST FAVORED. NUDGED POPS UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THU-FRI. AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH FINALLY MOVES INLAND. TIMING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...BUT BUMPED POPS UP SUN NIGHT-MONDAY USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECWMF/CLIMO AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRENDING THAT WAY. THE FASTER GFS BRINGS A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. && .AVIATION... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK BENEATH A SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM....JAD AVIATION.....NL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 559 AM MST MON FEB 28 2011 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011358- ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES- CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN- CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN- CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR- EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS- FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER- GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS- GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN- NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER- ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH- SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU- UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY- UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS- 559 AM MST MON FEB 28 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ARRIVES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT BUT YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION. TGJT
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Abnormally dry conditions expanded westward into the southeast corner of Archuleta County due to limited precipitation across the region.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, March 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 344613.