Damaging Wind in Colorado, June 3, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
334 PM MDT FRI JUN 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 100KT JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES ATTM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING ANOTHER UPPER
LOW SPINNING JUST OFF SHORE OF THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST ATTM. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING
HAS STALLED ACROSS EASTERN PUEBLO...NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND
NORTHERN BACA COUNTY WITH SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF KIM ATTM. REGIONAL
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING CUMULUS BUILDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH
SOME MORE HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MTS ATTM.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MODERATING OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING A TAD MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW AS JET CORE ACROSS THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND PAC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. TRANSLATING JET CORE WILL LIFT SFC LOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAS ANIMAS OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THIS EVENING
WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND
PASSING SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY SW WINDS
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS...EASTERN MTS AND PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 03Z. WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THIS EVENING...COULD SEE A FEW MAINLY HIGH
BASED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LATEST NAM
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS OF KEEPING THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. AT ANY RATE...WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...STILL SHOULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...THE PALMER DVD AND THE RATON MESA WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF A COLORADO SPRINGS TO LA JUNTA AND LAMAR LINE.
FURTHER WEST...WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. COULD SEE A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. -MW

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

...POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR
TUESDAY...

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. NAM AND
GFS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW SAT EVENING...WITH NAM
KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE RATON MESA DURING THE
EVENING...WHILE GFS LIFTS IT BACK NORTHWARD INTO NE CO. THINK THAT
NAM IS MORE LIKELY TO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA...THOUGH EVEN IT MIXES
OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE SE
PLAINS SAT EVENING. THINK BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ACROSS KIOWA AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY MON EVENING WHERE
DEEPEST MAY BE. CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP ALONG EASTERN AND
NORTHERN SIDE OF SFC LOW WHICH LIFTS INTO SE CO OVERNIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTING UP WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY HIGH BASED WITH MOISTURE...SO WOULD THINK MORE
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WHICH RAISES
CONCERNS FOR DRY LIGHTNING.  HARD TO FIND MUCH OF A SHORTWAVE THIS
DAY TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.  MEANWHILE...A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...THOUGH EVEN AT THAT...DEW POINTS IN BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS DECREASE INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CREST OF THE RATON
RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS BACA COUNTY TO
INITIATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
COULD BECOME STRONG OVER BACA COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHERE CAPES MAY BE NEAR 1000 J/KG. BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT
UNDER THE RIDGE...DEEP LAYER SHEARS ARE WEAKER...20-30 KTS...THUS
MAIN WX THREAT WOULD BE A RESULT OF PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN...NICKING BY WESTERN CO ON ITS WAY INTO THE NRN U.S.
ROCKIES.  THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND PERHAPS SOME
BETTER FORCING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MIX THE DRY LINE EASTWARD INTO KANSAS WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR THE REGION. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE AREA. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER FRONT MAY DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES OF ALS...COS AND PUB
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT COS AND PUB AFT 20Z. -MW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE
WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER SYSTEM CLIPS BY TO THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS
TO 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WITH HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING
DAYS AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THE FORECAST DETAILS
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. -KT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP SNOW MELT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...AS A HOT...DRY AND WINDY
PATTERN RETURNS TO THE AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA...AND THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS THE SNOW PACK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ON SUNDAY. WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW PACK ACROSS THE HEADWATERS
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
INCREASING FLOWS ALONG THE RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES FROM
LEADVILLE TO PUEBLO. THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS ALREADY
GONE ABOVE ACTION STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
ON SUNDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND MAY
BE UPGRADED TO A FLOOD WARNING ON SATURDAY AS WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FLOWS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR RECREATION PLANNED ALONG THE
ARKANSAS RIVER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AS FAST
FLOWS CAN BE DANGEROUS THIS TIME OF YEAR. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ221-222-224-
225-229-230-233.

&&

31/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1155 AM MDT FRI JUN 3 2011

COZ058>089-093>099-041800-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1155 AM MDT FRI JUN 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...THE
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT AND EXISTING DRY VEGETATION...WILL CREATE EXTREME
FIRE BEHAVIOR. EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE USED TO AVOID ANY FIRE STARTS
TODAY.

ONE OR TWO HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS
THE KANSAS BORDER DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND ON THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

23/23