Wildfire in Colorado, July 23 to 24, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
532 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...

(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE STARTING TO INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY...

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY START A BIT OF AN UPSWING TODAY.  A COUPLE
AREAS...IN PARTICULAR...SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY GOOD ACTIVITY.  ONE
AREA IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM
ACTIVITY YESTERDAY.  CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE EVIDENT IN THIS AREA
WHERE CONVECTION MAY INITIATE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH IS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.  A COMBINATION OF
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO GET
THINGS GOING IN THIS AREA.  OTHER AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A THREAT OF
STORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING.  THERE IS POSSIBLY ENOUGH CAPE FOR A FEW PULSE
TYPE STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.  HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES
TODAY ARE PRETTY LOW SO GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE HOT.  GENERALLY EXPECTING 90S TO AROUND
100 OVER THE PLAINS...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID
80S TO MID 60S HIGHER UP.  THESE READINGS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LW

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO CIRCULATE
INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND SATURDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WITH
THE INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...WILL
SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
STORMS LOOK TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE
INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...TEMPS TO BE COOLER THAN
SATURDAY...THOUGH STILL LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

MONDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS INDICATING UPPER HIGH LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

MOVEMENT OF UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO PUSH MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN UTAH MONDAY WITH THE PLUME THEN
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND OUT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

WITH STRONG MID SUMMER SOLAR HEATING...SCATTERED LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STORMS WILL POSSISBLE ACROSS THE
FAR SE PLAINS IF MID LEVEL CAP CAN BE BROACHED EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE INCREASING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND PASSING NORTHERN TIER SYSTEM SENDING ANOTHER
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. -MW

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND ALSO ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
ERRATIC...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN WIT ANY STORMS.
FOR TAF SITES...KCOS PROBABLY HAS THE HIGHEST RISK OF STORMS WHILE
THE RISK IS LOWER AT KPUB AND KALS. KCOS TAF WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCTS IN FORECAST FOR TODAY...WITH CB IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH KPUB
AND KALS. ALL FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED ON SHORT NOTICE
PENDING AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2011

COZ058>089-093>099-241245-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1100 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY. THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. ONE OR TWO STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE MONSOON IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...AS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
IN AND AROUND RECENT BURN SCARS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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