Lightning Strike in Colorado, August 31, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
444 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE
WITH A BROAD UPPER HIGH LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING BULK OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN SHUNTED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH 00Z NCEP CHARTS INDICATING PWATS
RUNNING BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING ONE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WHICH
HELPED PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE
FAR SE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL OTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH...NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
ATTM.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FAIRLY SIMILAR SET UP TO YESTERDAY WITH MODELS
INDICATING MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
HELPING TO DEVELOP HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVING THE STORMS ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED V PROFILES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIXES OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
AFTERNOON DEW PTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LEADING TO STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND LITTLE RAINFALL. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE KEPT ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS IN TACT OVER THE MTS WITH BEST COVERAGE
ALONG THE CONTDVD. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS AND SILENT POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH WARM AIR ALOFT (H7 TEMPS 16C-19C) INITIALLY CAPPING
CONVECTION. HAVE AGAIN ADDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES POSSIBLY BREAKING
THE CAP. CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS 2-6F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE  PLAINS...AS H7 TEMPS WARM 1C TO 2C. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL...WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT. -MW

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

THURSDAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR HOT...DRY AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS
PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL IN TURN INDUCE PRESSURE
FALLS AND A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS...WITH FAIRLY
DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS NEAR THE KS BORDER EAST OF THE LEE
TROUGH THU AFTERNOON...THOUGH MAY BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH HIGHER THAN
THAT GIVEN RATHER MODEST 700/500MB FLOW. CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THU AFTERNOON AS RH FALLS
TOWARD 15 PERCENT...THOUGH GIVEN MARGINAL SET-UP AND RATHER
PATCHWORK FUELS STATUS...WILL PUSH DECISION OFF TO THE DAY SHIFT.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSRA THU AFTERNOON OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER. DEEP MIXING SHOULD BOOST
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 90S/LOW 100S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH RECORDS IN
JEOPARDY AT PUB/COS/ALS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY FIRE A FEW STORMS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH EASTWARD EXTENT OF
CONVECTION STILL A QUESTION AS FAIRLY STOUT CAP IS IN PLACE ALONG
AND EAST OF I-25. TOUGH TO RULE OUT A STORM COMPLETELY...SO WILL
RUN WITH SOME VERY LOW POPS FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F COOLER MOST AREAS...WITH BIGGEST CHANGE OVER
THE PLAINS. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE THEN DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY...PUSHING ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON. MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE A ROUND OF TSRA OVER
THE PLAINS WITH THE FROPA...THOUGH FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BY SAT EVENING. KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN. SUN LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
NICE EARLY SEPTEMBER DAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...KEEPING MAXES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR A
CHANGE. SOME RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BY AFTERNOON
OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
NEAR THE NM BORDER LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES
OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A GRADUAL RETURN OF
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING TSRA CHANCES OVER MOST
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BOTH MON/TUE...THOUGH
FORECAST 700 MB TEMPS SUGGEST READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE
NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. --PETERSEN

&&

.AVIATION...FAIRLY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE INVERTED V PROFILES...WITH STORMS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND ONLY BRIEF RAINFALL.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BEST
CHANCES OF VCTS AT KCOS. -MW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

23/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1125 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

COZ058>089-093>099-011730-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1125 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
STORMS SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ON THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE INCREASING FIRE
DANGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH STORMS PRODUCING CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

88/50