Funnel Cloud in Colorado, August 3, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 AM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

...FLOODING AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...

CURRENTLY...MCV IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO NW KS AND SW NE. SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE CIRCULATION BEHIND THE COMPLEX...SO WILL KEEP SCT POPS
GOING THIS MORNING OVR KIOWA AND N PROWERS COUNTIES. LOOKS FAIRLY
DRY W OF I-25...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL ROBUST WITH VERY HIGH
DEWPOINTS...IN THE 50S EVEN IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

TODAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AREAS HIT HARDEST YESTERDAY. DEEPEST
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOVING E OF THE AREA TODAY...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE MONSOON IS STILL QUITE
ACTIVE AND THERE IS A RENEWED BURST OF CONVECTION OVR SRN AZ THAT
MAY TRANSLATE TO THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO CO LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS QUITE SIGNIFICANT. HAVE OPTED TO GO FOR A MORE LIMITED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY...FOR THE AREAS THAT GOT AROUND AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN YESTERDAY...AND WHERE SOME MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL REFORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...WATCH
RUNS FROM 3PM TO 10PM LOCAL TIME. LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADJUST
EXTENT OR TIMING BASED ON UPDATED GUIDANCE. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
ARE SOME OF THE CANYON ROADS LIKE HIGHWAYS 50 AND 24...IN AREAS
PRONE TO ROCK SLIDE ACTIVITY. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE PLAINS KEEPING US NR
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR TEMPS TODAY. STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...AND COULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCAL FOG OR BR BY EARLY THU
MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

...WEATHER QUIETS DOWN SOME...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MONSOON PLUME STILL OVER COLORADO...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AREA WIDE.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG...SO
MAIN CONCERNS FOR STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S
PLAINS...70S AND 80S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 50S TO 60S MOUNTAINS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MONSOON PLUME DIMINISHES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE PLAINS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. MEANTIME...WESTERN AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME ISOLATED
STORMS BOTH DAYS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...YIELDING...AT BEST...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ELEVATE A
CATEGORY...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME BR AND FOG POSSIBLE AT THE
TAF SITES THIS MORN...WHERE AIR IS NEARLY SATURATED AS OF 4 AM MDT.
FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 15Z OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB AS WELL...GENERALLY IN
THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LIGHT...BUT
COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TS LATER TODAY. SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 03Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR COZ076-077-079>086.

&&

44/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1211 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

COZ058>089-093>099-041330-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1211 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THIS WILL AGAIN POSE THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER FREMONT...TELLER...EL
PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES...WHERE WIDESPEAD HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. OTHER AREAS PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE RECENT
WILDFIRE BURN SCARS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THOSE AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED
FROM PREVIOUS RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

23/23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
956 AM MDT WED AUG 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 E COLORADO CITY       37.95N 104.72W
08/03/2011  M0.90 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 0.60 INCHES FELL TUESDAY EVENING WITH
            ANOTHER 0.30 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

&&

STARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1052 AM MDT WED AUG 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE PUEBLO            38.30N 104.59W
08/03/2011  M0.92 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL

&&

MW