Hail in Colorado, August 13, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT SAT AUG 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

CURRENTLY...

AT 2 AM...LOW LVL CLOUDINESS WAS INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS AS
DWPTS CONTINUE TO CREEP UP AND AMBIENT TEMPS SLOWLY COOL. MONSOON
MOISTURE OVER AZ AND NM WAS STARTING TO MOVE NORTH AS PER WAT VAP
IMGY.

TODAY...

THE COMBINATION OF GOOD LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM KS AND MID
LVL MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASING OVER S CO WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN JUANS AND S SANGRE DE CRISTO/RATON
MESA REGION. IN THIS AREA I DREW UP POPS IN THE 50/60% RANGE FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA THAT HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS
WILL BE THE PIKES PEAK/N EL PASO COUNTY REGION. ALL OF THE
MTNS/VALLEYS WILL HAVE AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS TODAY.

AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-25...MAINLY
BELOW 5000 FEET ELEVATION. FLOW AT MID LVLS IS GOING TO BE NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LVL HIGH BUILDS...SO ONCE STORMS GET GOING
ARE NOT GOING TO BE PUSHED OFF THE HIGHER TRRN.

STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AND
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THIS MORNING...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
PLAINS...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. AREAS ON THE PLAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET MAY
NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...NOT EXPECTING THE PRECIP THIS EVENING TO PUSH
OUT ON THE PLAINS TOO MUCH...SO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN WEST OF LA JUNTA TO KIM. ONE MAJOR CHANGE WE WILL SEE IS THAT
SCTD PRECIP IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT OVER THE
MTNS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN JUANS. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT POPS UP
OVER THIS REGION. WILL ALSO SEE PRECIP CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE THIS
EVENING. \/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE INDICATING A CHANGE IN THINKING FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT STILL SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY EDGE TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE POURING
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTDVD...SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND
NIGHT...AND BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS AND AROUND 90 F
FOR THE PLAINS. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRYING HARD TO BUMP UP
TEMPS...BUT FEEL THAT THE LOWER TEMPS ARE WARRANTED DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PCPN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATS TO THE EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASES A BIT FOR MON AND
TUE. AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PAC NW ON MON...AND THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES MOVING EAST...IT
PUSHES LLVL MOISTURE DOWN INTO EASTERN CO AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TUE NIGHT. THEREFORE...MORE ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION TIED
MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED BOTH MON AND TUE...WITH
TEMPS WARMING BACK UP INTO THE MID 90S. INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED MODELS NOW PAINT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN EASTERLY
PUSH AT THE SFC KEEPS LLVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY.
GIVEN WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS AROUND HERE WHEN NW FLOW ALOFT IS IN
PLACE...WED THROUGH FRI SHOULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE EACH AFTN AND EVE
FOR THE PLAINS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY OVER KCOS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KALS. KPUB MAY ALSO SEE SOME THUNDER BUT THE
PROBABILITY OVER THIS TAF SITE IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE 2 PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TAF SITES.

STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING SO ACTIVITY MAY LINGER LONGER THAN
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER KCOS. MAY SEE STORMS DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON AT KCOS AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL JUST
MENTION CBS AND VCNTY TSRA IN TAF AS IT IS SIMPLY TOO DIFFICULT TO
TRY TO PINPOINT WHEN THE ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MOVE OVER THE TAF
SITE.

SOME LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY EFFECT KPUB THIS MORNING AS LOW CLOUD
PRODUCT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. SIMULATIONS
SHOW A LESSER CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AT KCOS...BUT THEY MAY FORM JUST
S AND E OF THE TAF SITE.

I DO NOT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE QUITE A
BIT OF MID LVL CLOUDS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

34/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1147 AM MDT SAT AUG 13 2011

COZ058>089-093>099-141800-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1147 AM MDT SAT AUG 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.  OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. GIVEN
THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED TODAY...THIS MAY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN AND NEAR THE BURN
SCARS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE TRACK BURN SCAR. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR ONE OR TWO STORMS TO BECOME STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME BRIEF SMALL HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE BEGINNING
MONDAY...AND MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

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