Wildfire in Arkansas, September 5, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1227 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR ALREADY BRINGING SKC TO KHRO...AND AS IT MOVES FARTHER
INTO THE STATE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT OTHER TAF SITES. KPBF
AND KLLQ ARE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NOW...AND WILL REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH SUNRISE. MAIN CONCERN AT OTHER SITES WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011/

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GENERALLY GOOD SHAPE BUT SOME MINOR CHANGES
ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE CENTER
OF "LEE" SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
IS STRETCHED OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TO ROUGHLY
FORT SMITH. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE NEAR
THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT AND FINALLY GIVE "LEE" THE NUDGE IT NEEDS TO START ITS
JOURNEY TO THE NORTHEAST. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO FILER INTO THE STATE AFTER THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. CHANGE IN AIR MASS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AS DEW POINTS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE STATE. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY AND CURRENT PLACEMENT/TIMING OF LAKE
WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD.

CHANGES THIS EVENING WERE MADE MAINLY TO POPS AND SKY COVER BASED
ON CURRENT TREND AND A QUICK GLANCE AT THE INCOMING MODELS. ALL
UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SO FAR THE SCORE IS SUBSIDENCE...1 AND COLD FRONT...0. A RELATIVELY
DEEP SURFACE-BASED DRY LAYER THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM LEE HAS SO FAR SQUASHED MOST
EFFORTS FROM THE COLD FRONT TO GENERATE PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THE FRONT CURRENTLY LIES FROM ROUGHLY TEXARKANA UP
THROUGH JONESBORO...GIVE OR TAKE A LITTLE BIT...BUT THUS FAR THE
ONLY PRECIP HAS BEEN ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT BACK IN NE OKLAHOMA
AND UP INTO SW MISSOURI. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
ALONG A FAIRLY WIDE AREA FROM MENA UP THROUGH CLINTON. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RESPONDED IN THAT REGION...JUMPING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN
LOW 90S....AND SHOWERS ARE NOW STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR ALONG THE
SFC COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AND
FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS OUT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. WILL STICK WITH THE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS I INCLUDED IN THIS REGION FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE AS
THIS WILL COVER EXPECTED COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. MEANWHILE THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS BEEN BENEATH A RAIN BAND FROM TS LEE ALL DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE MID 70S AND PLENTY OF RAIN
FALLING. THE MONTICELLO RAWS SITE HAS RECEIVED OVER 1.50 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS IN DREW COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TS LEE SLOWLY PULLS NORTHEAST.

THE NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN IS WIND. MOST MODELS HAVE WINDS ALONG THE
290K THETA SURFACE...WHICH COMES AWFULLY CLOSE TO INTERSECTING THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...IN THE 30-40KT RANGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WHILE
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY THAT HIGH...WIND GUSTS COULD
DEFINITELY MAKE IT INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
30KT. THE MOST PRONE AREAS WOULD BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE SFC
GRADIENTS WILL BE HIGHEST. HOWEVER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS THAT HIGH.
MENA...FOR EXAMPLE...HAS ALREADY SEEN MID 20KT RANGE. WILL STICK
WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY...BUT HAVE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
SCOTT...MONTGOMERY AND POLK COUNTIES IN THE WEST AND WHITE...JACKSON
AND INDEPENDENCE COUNTIES IN THE EAST. HAVE MOVED THE START TIME UP
TO 22Z THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL DUE TO MIXING HEIGHTS BEING
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR ADVISORY GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADIENT
WINDS KICK IN TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE
COOL AIR IS STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED TOMORROW...TUE AND WED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
MORNING LOWS WILL ALSO BE COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW
60S TOMORROW...BUT MID 40S TO LOW 50S TUE AND WED MORNINGS. MODELS
NOW SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMING OVER WRN TENN ON TUE AS THE
REMNANTS OF TS LEE GET ENTRAINED INTO A DIGGING TROUGH. THIS CLOSED
LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ARKANSAS TO GIVE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE EAST ON WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER LOW AND SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO INTRODUCE SOME MINIMAL POPS FROM SHARP COUNTY DOWN
THROUGH WOODRUFF COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE NOTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A
CUTOFF LOW WOBBLING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURROUNDING THE LOW...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE PLAINS WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WIND. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.

&&

AVIATION...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
815 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
815 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS SURROUNDING
TROPICAL STORM LEE...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN AREAS OF RAIN
WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM A HOPE TO CABOT TO NEAR NEWPORT LINE. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM EITHER OF THESE FEATURES.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW BUT WILL LIKELY TAKE A FEW HOURS TO
ARRIVE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH. A FEW GUSTS COULD EXCEED 25 MPH IN
PLACES. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSEST TO
THE CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM LEE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR LABOR DAY...AS TROPICAL STORM LEE
MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST. ANY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO
FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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