Wildfire in Arkansas, September 4 to 5, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
701 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS

THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. THE WX
PLAYERS ARE A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM FAR NE AR TO
NEAR FT SMITH...AND TS LEE...CURRENTLY ANALYZED IN CEN LA. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE AND LEE WILL
CONTINUE NE INTO MS.

THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE STRONG WINDS TO
THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GUST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
EVERYWHERE AND PICK BACK UP AGAIN TOMORROW WITH A GUST TO 30KTS
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. RAIN CHCS WILL BE LOW THROUGH
THE PD WITH ONLY VICINITY SHOWERS NOTED AT KPBF AND KLLQ. SKIES
WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. BEFORE
THEY CLEAR...KLLQ WILL LIKELY HAVE BOUTS WITH MVFR CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MISSOURI
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO EXIST IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST SURROUNDING TROPICAL STORM LEE IN LOUISIANA. IN BOTH
AREAS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON IN SPOTS SUCH AS KHRO AND
KLLQ.

AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FARTHER NORTH...ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT...TAKING
MOISTURE AWAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH IN
THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAREST
THE CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM LEE. (46)

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SO FAR THE SCORE IS SUBSIDENCE...1 AND COLD FRONT...0. A RELATIVELY
DEEP SURFACE-BASED DRY LAYER THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM LEE HAS SO FAR SQUASHED MOST
EFFORTS FROM THE COLD FRONT TO GENERATE PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THE FRONT CURRENTLY LIES FROM ROUGHLY TEXARKANA UP
THROUGH JONESBORO...GIVE OR TAKE A LITTLE BIT...BUT THUS FAR THE
ONLY PRECIP HAS BEEN ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT BACK IN NE OKLAHOMA
AND UP INTO SW MISSOURI. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
ALONG A FAIRLY WIDE AREA FROM MENA UP THROUGH CLINTON. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RESPONDED IN THAT REGION...JUMPING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN
LOW 90S....AND SHOWERS ARE NOW STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR ALONG THE
SFC COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AND
FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS OUT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. WILL STICK WITH THE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS I INCLUDED IN THIS REGION FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE AS
THIS WILL COVER EXPECTED COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. MEANWHILE THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS BEEN BENEATH A RAIN BAND FROM TS LEE ALL DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE MID 70S AND PLENTY OF RAIN
FALLING. THE MONTICELLO RAWS SITE HAS RECEIVED OVER 1.50 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS IN DREW COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TS LEE SLOWLY PULLS NORTHEAST.

THE NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN IS WIND. MOST MODELS HAVE WINDS ALONG THE
290K THETA SURFACE...WHICH COMES AWFULLY CLOSE TO INTERSECTING THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...IN THE 30-40KT RANGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WHILE
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY THAT HIGH...WIND GUSTS COULD
DEFINITELY MAKE IT INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
30KT. THE MOST PRONE AREAS WOULD BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE SFC
GRADIENTS WILL BE HIGHEST. HOWEVER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS THAT HIGH.
MENA...FOR EXAMPLE...HAS ALREADY SEEN MID 20KT RANGE. WILL STICK
WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY...BUT HAVE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
SCOTT...MONTGOMERY AND POLK COUNTIES IN THE WEST AND WHITE...JACKSON
AND INDEPENDENCE COUNTIES IN THE EAST. HAVE MOVED THE START TIME UP
TO 22Z THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL DUE TO MIXING HEIGHTS BEING
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR ADVISORY GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADIENT
WINDS KICK IN TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE
COOL AIR IS STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED TOMORROW...TUE AND WED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
MORNING LOWS WILL ALSO BE COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW
60S TOMORROW...BUT MID 40S TO LOW 50S TUE AND WED MORNINGS. MODELS
NOW SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMING OVER WRN TENN ON TUE AS THE
REMNANTS OF TS LEE GET ENTRAINED INTO A DIGGING TROUGH. THIS CLOSED
LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ARKANSAS TO GIVE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE EAST ON WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER LOW AND SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO INTRODUCE SOME MINIMAL POPS FROM SHARP COUNTY DOWN
THROUGH WOODRUFF COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE NOTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A
CUTOFF LOW WOBBLING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURROUNDING THE LOW...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE PLAINS WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WIND. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     57  75  51  75 /  20   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         63  80  54  81 /  30  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       52  73  47  75 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  76  53  78 /  20   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  76  54  78 /  20   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  76  54  78 /  60  20   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      59  77  49  80 /  20   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  75  49  77 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        59  75  52  76 /  20   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     63  75  53  78 /  40  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  79  50  79 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         60  73  53  74 /  20   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      62  74  53  75 /  30  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.

&&

AVIATION...63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
815 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
815 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS SURROUNDING
TROPICAL STORM LEE...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN AREAS OF RAIN
WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM A HOPE TO CABOT TO NEAR NEWPORT LINE. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM EITHER OF THESE FEATURES.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW BUT WILL LIKELY TAKE A FEW HOURS TO
ARRIVE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH. A FEW GUSTS COULD EXCEED 25 MPH IN
PLACES. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSEST TO
THE CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM LEE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR LABOR DAY...AS TROPICAL STORM LEE
MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST. ANY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO
FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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