Wildfire in Arkansas, September 14 to 17, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1228 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR...BUT DROP TO
MVFR LEVELS OR POSSIBLY LOWER UNDER ANY SHRA/TSRA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2011/

SYNOPSIS...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM
FORT SMITH TO WEST PLAINS AND SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ON THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED NEAR SEARCY AND MOVING TO
THE EAST. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS SITUATION HANDLED VERY WELL AND NO UPDATES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A WARY EYE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND UN UPDATE MAY BE FORTHCOMING LATER. SATELLITE IS
SHOWING SOME BREAKS OVER THE WEST AND MOVING EASTWARD. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED BEFORE COOLER AIR SWEEPS
IN TONIGHT. IF CLOUDS PERSIST...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
LOWERED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WDLY SCTD ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTS TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE FA EARLY
THIS MRNG AS A WEAK IMPULSE WORKS EWD ACRS THE REGION. AT THE SFC...
A FNTL BNDRY WAS LOCATED FM SWRN MO BACK INTO OK...WHERE A LOW PRES
SYS WAS TAKING SHAPE. PLAN TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL REGARDING POPS
THIS MRNG BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

THE MODELS RMN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL FCST TRENDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE SFC LOW TO OUR W WL SHIFT EWD TODAY AND EARLY TNGT...
BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY THRU THE FA. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THE PROB OF ORGANIZED SVR STORMS WL BE LIMITED.

RAIN CHCS WL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FNT AS HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. MUCH COOLER AIR WL ALSO BE NOTED BEHIND THE
FNT...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THU ONLY IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE FNT WL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT TO THE S OF THE AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UPR
RDG SITUATED OVR THE GULF.

HIGH PRES WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF AR STARTING ON FRI. AS A RESULT...
THE STALLED OUT FNT WL START TO LIFT BACK NWD HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES WL MOVE EWD AND INTERACT WITH
THE WARM FNT TO SET OFF SCTD SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ACRS PARTS OF NRN
AND WRN AR. OPTED NOT TO GO ANY HIGHER ON POPS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE
RMNS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SHRTWV/S.

AFTER THE COOL DOWN ON THU...TEMPS WL MAKE A GRADUAL RECOVERY THRU
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS TEMPS...WITH ONLY A
FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
MONDAY AND WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EAST TUESDAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BY TUESDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL ON SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  54  67  49 /  60  30  10  20
CAMDEN AR         98  64  74  54 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       77  50  63  48 /  60  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  62  71  52 /  30  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  61  71  51 /  30  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     98  64  75  52 /  20  30  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      90  61  70  52 /  30  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  77  50  65  48 /  70  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        84  55  68  49 /  60  40  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     91  63  73  52 /  30  30  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  56  68  51 /  30  20  10  20
SEARCY AR         84  58  70  51 /  50  30  10  10
STUTTGART AR      89  62  72  51 /  30  40  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1116 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1116 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE SEEN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE SOME AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOW ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO THE STATE ON
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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