Wildfire in Arkansas, September 1 to 5, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1249 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT MOVE WEST
FRIDAY. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FOG. SCATTERED HIGH
CIRRUS ARE ANTICIPATED TIL MID DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS SHOULD
DEVELOP TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS WITHOUT FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AT 4K
TO 6K FT AS WELL AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE SE
TO SW 4 TO 12 KNOTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. UNDER THE HIGH...
THERE WILL BE HOT AFTERNOONS AND LITTLE/NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
THE HEAT WILL NOT LAST LONG.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A LARGE TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE HIGH WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTHWEST...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS MORE ON THE FRONT IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN THE FRONT...THE FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE NEAR TERM WILL
BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM FORMING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
THE SYSTEM MEANDERING IN THE WESTERN GULF...MOSTLY BETWEEN
BROWNSVILLE AND NEW ORLEANS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WHERE
THE SYSTEM MAY GO...BUT IT WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF ARKANSAS
GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.

IN SHORT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS COMING. THERE IS NO
PRECIPITATION MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS ALL AGREE ON A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING LOCATED JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL GOMEX COASTLINE DURING THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS BRINGING A
COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER THAT IS ABOUT WHERE
THE AGREEMENT STOPS. THE GFS...EURO AND CANADIAN ALL HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE LOCATION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE GOMEX TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE GFS BRINGS IT INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND TAKES IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE EURO PARKS IT
OFF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN TX COAST...AND FINALLY THE CANADIAN TRACKS
IT INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. FURTHERMORE THEY DISAGREE WITH REGARD TO
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THUS IT SEEMS THE MOST PRUDENT THING TO DO AT THIS POINT IS TO NOT
CHANGE MUCH OF ANYTHING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA ON SUN...HIGHEST IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM RESPECTIVELY. ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD
STILL OCCUR DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY RAINFALL/CLOUD COVER DEVELOP.
FOR MONDAY ONWARD...MADE NO CHANGES. MODELS DO AGREE...THOUGH
DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP NLY FLOW WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY ONWARD...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     97  73  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         99  74  98  72 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       98  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    98  74  97  73 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  97  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     98  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      97  73  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  99  73  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        96  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     97  73  97  73 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         96  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      96  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND THE ARKANSAS
DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH HAVE DECLARED AN OZONE ACTION ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY FOR PULASKI...FAULKNER...LONOKE...AND SALINE COUNTIES.
CODE ORANGE CONDITIONS ARE UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS...ACTIVE
CHILDREN AND ADULTS. PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY DISEASE...SUCH AS
ASTHMA...SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXERTION ON THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND AT THIS TIME THE THREAT OF ANY
SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE VERY LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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