A series of stalled frontal boundaries produced heavy rainfall over portions of the Arkansas, Red, and White River basins, which led to river flooding.
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The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
A series of stalled frontal boundaries produced heavy rainfall over portions of the Arkansas, Red, and White River basins, which led to river flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 21, 6:03 AM CST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 603 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011 .AVIATION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. THE FRONT IS MAINLY FROM TEXARKANA TO BRINKLEY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT NOT A LOT OF APPRECIABLE CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING TO THE GOING PACKAGE AS UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM BLYTHVILLE TO RUSSELLVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF DEQUEEN. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS IT REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND IS RUNNING INTO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. SOME MODELS INDICATING BOUNDARY MAY ACTUALLY RETREAT BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. MODELS IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS MORNING. LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL SHOWS DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH SITING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. TROUGH THEN EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY THE END OF TUESDAY...KICKING THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES UNTIL FROPA. ONE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS....MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE BUT STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION LATER THIS MORNING UNTIL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT... DEEPENING AS IT DOES...REACHING FORT SMITH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY TUESDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM TWO TO FIVE INCHES GENERALLY NORTH OF MURFREESBORO...SHERIDAN...AND BRINKLEY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS APPROACHING SIX INCHES. CURRENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. SEVERE THREAT STILL CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE TONIGHT AS FRONT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH AND SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING GOING. INSTABILITY STILL LACKING BUT WIND PROFILES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN BOW TYPE SEGMENTS. SYSTEM LOOKS TO CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY MID DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT. HIGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE WANING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH READINGS COOLING DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUIDANCE GENERALLY ACCEPTED. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING FROM THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING AND SWEEP THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE STATE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AT ALL WITH THE EXITING OF THIS SYSTEM SO THIS COULD CHANGE AS THEY GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST SATURDAY EVENING PER GFS SOLUTION. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER THE STATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT COOLER SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 65 58 65 42 / 90 100 80 10 CAMDEN AR 77 64 74 46 / 60 70 80 10 HARRISON AR 59 53 57 39 / 90 100 50 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 72 62 68 44 / 80 90 70 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 72 62 70 44 / 80 90 80 10 MONTICELLO AR 77 64 76 47 / 50 70 80 20 MOUNT IDA AR 70 60 66 42 / 90 90 60 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 55 60 41 / 90 100 60 10 NEWPORT AR 66 60 67 43 / 90 90 90 20 PINE BLUFF AR 75 64 73 46 / 60 80 80 20 RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 58 63 41 / 90 100 60 10 SEARCY AR 69 60 68 43 / 80 90 80 20 STUTTGART AR 74 63 71 45 / 70 80 80 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BAXTER-BOONE- CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION- MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI- SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL. && AVIATION...51
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 500 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221000- ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND- CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING- INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE- MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE- PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE- WOODRUFF-YELL- 500 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH ARKANSAS. A FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM TEXARKANA TO NEAR JONESBORO. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY THEN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS. FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL SEE MORE RAIN TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE ARKANSAS...WHITE...BLACK...BUFFALO AND CACHE RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY DUE TO THE INCREASED THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL GET A PUSH FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TUESDAY THAT WILL TAKE IT EAST OF ARKANSAS. ANOTHER ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY...AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO PERSIST TUESDAY AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD EXIST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. && VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 51
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 307 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011 ARZ043>046-210950- LONOKE AR-PRAIRIE AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR- 307 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SALINE...CENTRAL PULASKI...WESTERN PRAIRIE AND NORTHERN LONOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CST... AT 306 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES EAST OF WAKEFIELD VILLAGE...OR NEAR LITTLE ROCK ARPT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SW LITTLE ROCK... NORTH LITTLE ROCK... LONOKE... DWNTWN LITTLE ROCK... LITTLE ROCK ARPT... THURMAN... SWEET HOME... SOUTH BEND... SISEMORE... SCOTT... PROTHRO JUNCTION... PRAIRIE CENTER... METO... MCCREANOR... MCALMONT... MABELVALE... LAKEWOOD... IRONTON... THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 130 AND 142. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 152 AND 192. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 6. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN! LAT...LON 3503 9166 3480 9158 3458 9241 3474 9239 TIME...MOT...LOC 0907Z 247DEG 40KT 3470 9228 51
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
752 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0734 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 WNW DOWNTOWN LITTLE 34.79N 92.40W
11/21/2011 M5.20 INCH PULASKI AR TRAINED SPOTTER
5.20 INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT THROUGH 7AM AT RAHLING AND
CHENAL IN WEST LITTLE ROCK
&&
BJSThe Little Rock radar (KLZK), 44 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:31 UTC.
6 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall caused the Saline River near Benton to rise above flood stage during the morning hours on the 21st. This river reached over 23 feet before receding below flood stage during the late evening hours on the 22nd.
Heavy rainfall occurred upstream of Remmel Dam. This heavy rain caused the dam operators to open gates along the dam and caused minor flooding at Jones Mill during the morning hours of the 21st. The river reached over 19 feet before receding below flood stage during the evening hours on the same day.
Heavy rainfall caused the Petit Jean River near Danville to rise above flood stage during the evening hours on the 21st. This river reached over 26 feet before receding below flood stage during the evening hours on the 24th. The crest of 26.66 feet reached during the evening hours of the 22nd was the 7th highest crest on record.
Heavy rainfall caused the Ouachita River near Arkadelphia to rise above flood stage during the early morning hours on the 22nd. This river reached over 21 feet before receding below flood stage during the morning hours on the 23rd.
Heavy rainfall caused the Fourche LaFave River near Gravelly to rise above flood stage during the early morning hours on the 22nd. This river reached over 29 feet before receding below flood stage during the evening hours on the same day. The crest of 29.38 feet reached during the afternoon of the 22nd was the 5th highest crest on record.
Heavy rainfall caused the Fourche LaFave River near Houston to rise above flood stage during the late morning hours on the 22nd. This river reached over 28 feet before receding below flood stage during the morning hours on the 25th.
Heavy rainfall caused the White River near Augusta to rise above flood stage during the early morning hours on the 23rd. This river reached over 30 feet during the month of November and minor flooding continued through the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, November 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 351283, 355206, 351277, 351282, 351110, 351275, 351284.