Wildfire in Arkansas, July 29 to 31, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1209 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHED VIS AND
CIGS UNDER AND IN VICINITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. BY THIS EVENING...THE
EXTENT OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE...THOUGH MORNING
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE
AMPLE RAINFALL. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR
SAT...WITH SHRA MENTIONED AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR THE SERN PART OF THE NATION EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH S/SELY WIND FLOW NOTED ACRS THE FA. INCRSG WAA IS
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUD FORMATION OVR PARTS OF ERN AR ATTM AND EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONT THRU THE MRNG HRS.

MAIN FCST FOCUS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM WL BE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO SIG FORCING FEATURES FOR STORMS TO
INITIATE...LOOKS LIKE DAYTIME HEATING WL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORM FORMATION TODAY AND AGAIN ON SAT. ACTIVITY ACRS NRN PARTS OF
AR WL ALSO BE AIDED BY A FNTL BNDRY THAT WL SAG SWD INTO SRN MO
LATER TODAY/TNGT AND EVENTUALLY STALL OUT.

MOS POPS HAVE CONTD TO INCRS OVR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR MOST
AREAS. OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SERN AR THIS AFTN...WHERE
LOW LVL RH WL BE MORE ABUNDANT. STILL CANNOT RULE OF A FEW SVR
STORMS BOTH DAYS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WL ALSO BE LIKELY...WITH FCST PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES OVR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BY SUN AND MON...THE UPR RDG WL AGAIN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACRS THE
MID SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABV
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH RAIN CHCS ONCE AGAIN ON THE DECREASE.

CLOUDS AND RAIN CHCS WL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THE
TWO DAYS...WITH HEAT INDICES RMNG BLW ADVY CRITERIA. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT HEADLINES WL BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE FA HEADING INTO SUN
AND BEYOND.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE
COUNTRY...CUTTING OFF ANY GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO ARKANSAS. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL RETURN
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  73  94  74 /  50  30  40  20
CAMDEN AR         92  75  95  74 /  50  30  40  20
HARRISON AR       94  72  93  72 /  50  30  40  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  75  94  76 /  50  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  75  93  76 /  50  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     91  75  93  75 /  50  30  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      93  73  95  74 /  50  30  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  72  94  73 /  50  30  40  20
NEWPORT AR        92  73  93  75 /  50  30  40  20
PINE BLUFF AR     91  74  92  75 /  50  30  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  74  94  75 /  50  30  40  20
SEARCY AR         92  75  92  74 /  50  30  40  20
STUTTGART AR      91  76  92  76 /  50  30  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
136 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
136 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM AS STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
SYSTEM BRINGS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD AND
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
208 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E FRANKLIN            36.17N 91.72W
07/29/2011                   IZARD              AR   POST OFFICE

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 56 EAST OF FRANKLIN
            TOWARDS MYRON.

&&

61