Wildfire in Arkansas, July 1, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1226 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE AND SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

HOT AND HUMID CONDS ONCE AGAIN THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE DAY ACRS THE FA
AS HIGH PRES ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVR THE SRN PLAINS. A FEW STORMS
HAVE FORMED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AR THIS AFTN...WITH MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE
FORMING VCNTY OF AN OLD FNTL BNDRY AND IN AN AREA OF INCRSD MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE.

THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES ALOFT WL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACRS THE MID SOUTH. RAIN CHCS WL RMN LOW EACH
AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH COVERAGE MAINLY ISOLD IN NATURE. HIGH TEMPS
WL CONT TO TOP OUT IN THE 90S EACH AFTN...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
HOVERING JUST BLW THE CRITICAL 105 DEGREE MARK THRU THE PD. THUS...
NOT PLANNING ANY HEAT HEADLINES BUT WL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODELS ARE CONTG TO INDC THAT THE UPR RDG WL BEGIN TO SLOLY
RETROGRADE WWD LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WL ALLOW RAIN CHCS TO AGAIN INCRS AS A NEW FNTL BNDRY IS FCST TO
DROP INTO THE FA FM THE N. PLAN TO INTRO LOW CHC POPS ATTM AND SEE
HOW CONSISTENT LATER MODEL RUNS ARE. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WDLY
SCTD CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...TEMP FCST WL BCM MORE CHALLENGING BY
THE END OF THE PD. FOR NOW...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THRU
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE WEST AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER
THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE WEAK RIDGING OVER AR WILL BE SEEN...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP FOR ARKANSAS. DUE TO THE NW
UPPER FLOW...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...AND MORE IF A MCS WERE TO
FORM UP STREAM OF AR AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. IT IS TOO EARLY IN THE
MODEL RUNS TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GO FOR
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT AT LEAST SOME
CHANCE OF STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START HOT ON
MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY COME BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY
THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN...WHILE STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THOSE
PLACES THAT DO NOT RECEIVE ANY RAIN OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS. ALSO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER PLAINS...BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE AT THIS TIME ON ARKANSAS
WEATHER. UNCERTAINTY DOES CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH HOW MUCH THE UPPER
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...AND HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE UPPER
FLOW. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM WITH THE CHANCES OF RAIN
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         71  99  72  98 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       72  98  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     72 100  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  98  72  98 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  97  71  95 /  10  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        72  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     72  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71 100  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         71  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      73  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...63 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
933 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
933 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH VERY HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DAILY
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
90S...WITH LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS APPROACHING
OR EVEN EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE HOT TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS...
WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH 100 TO AROUND
105 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX READINGS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER
BY THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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