Drought in Arkansas, December 1 to 27, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
850 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO TENNESSEE. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE SLOWLY BACK INTO ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT NORTH ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT. ONLY UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011/

AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE PD. HIGH CLOUDS WL PASS ACRS THE FA
FM TIME TO TIME. LGT WINDS OVERNIGHT WL BCM MAINLY SELY AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON THU. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY
ACROSS THE STATE...AS SOUTH WINDS BROUGHT WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...WHILE NORTHERN SITES
WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL...READINGS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A
WARMING TREND TO THE STATE...ALONG WITH MOISTURE. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE NATURAL STATE...IF ANY AT ALL. WHILE THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT MAY REDUCE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FRIDAY...OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.

AS LARGE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OPENS AND MOVES EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...SENDING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER FOR ARKANSAS EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF RAIN STARTING ACROSS THE
STATE...BUT OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST HANDLED THE COMPLICATED
SITUATION WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT SATURDAY...AS SOUTH
WINDS WILL BRING MID TO UPPER 60S TO SOUTH ARKANSAS...WHILE NORTHERN
ARKANSAS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 50S.

IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES...HAVE SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM...WITH ANOTHER PROLONGED RAIN EVENT
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
EVENT. MODELS HAVE FALLEN INTO TWO CAMPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
QUICKER SOLUTION HIGHLIGHTED BY THE GFS AND THE SLOWER SUITE OF
MODELS LED BY THE ECMWF. WITH SIGNIFICANT RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS...SLOWER SOLUTION SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE AND WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS A STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED... UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. NORTHERN PART OF THE TROF WILL DAMPEN OUT WITH THE
SOUTHERN PART CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE STATE COME SUNDAY MORNING AND RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING.

SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO KICK PUT OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH AND TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY KICKS THE FRONT THROUGH. IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN ITS
EXPECTED LOCATION...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A PARAGOULD TO LITTLE ROCK TO MENA LINE. OF
COURSE...BEING THIS FAR OUT THE EXACT AREA THAT WILL SEE THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE. THE RAIN WILL END MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUES WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR COMING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT.

ONLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR DOES
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ONLY AFTER THE DEEPEST MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SHUNTED EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     28  53  32  54 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         28  60  35  61 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       28  57  33  53 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    28  58  35  58 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  29  56  33  58 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     32  58  33  63 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      26  58  36  57 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  26  56  32  53 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        28  53  31  55 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     32  57  33  60 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   26  57  34  57 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         27  54  32  56 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      29  55  32  57 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
800 AM CST WED NOV 30 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
800 AM CST WED NOV 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SLOW THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION.

RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
IF THE FRONT FAILS TO EXIT THE AREA.

RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH AMOUNTS
OVER TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...AND
HOW LONG IT STALLS. DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS ADDITIONAL
DATA IS RECEIVED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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