Wildfire in Arkansas, August 5 to 6, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MOST OF THE CONVECTION FM EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS SHIFTED E OF THE FA
ATTM. HOWEVER...CONT TO MONITOR SEVERAL LEFTOVER BNDRY/S ACRS PARTS
OF NRN AND CNTRL AR. CONDS ALONG AND S OF THESE FEATURES RMN QUITE
UNSTABLE AND HAVE SEEN A FEW STORMS TRYING TO DVLP. WL CONT TO
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...BUT PLAN TO LEAVE SMALL POPS IN FOR THIS
EVENING OVR MOST OF THE AREA.

HOT CONDS WL CONT TO DOMINATE THE WX HEADLINES ACRS THE NATURAL
STATE THRU THE WEEKEND. A FNTL BNDRY WL MEANDER OVR SRN MO THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCTD SHRA/TSRA FORMATION. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NRN AR...AND WL CONT WITH SLGT
CHCS OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD STORM
ELSEWHERE EACH DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FCST.

REGARDING TEMPS...ABV NORMAL HIGHS WL CONT OVR THE FA...WITH THE
HOTTEST READINGS GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF THE AR RVR VALLEY. TEMPS
WL BE A BIT LOWER ACRS PARTS OF NRN AR EACH AFTN WITH MORE CLOUDS
EXPECTED. FCST HEAT INDICES ARE PROGGED TO RMN BLW WRNG CRITERIA AND
WL LEAVE HEAT ADVY IN PLACE THRU SUN.

BY MON...THE MODELS CONT TO INDC SOME WEAKENING AND A SLGT WWD SHIFT
IN THE UPR RDG. THIS WL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED FNT BNDRY TO SAG
SWD INTO AR...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCTD CONVECTION OVR MOST AREAS.
EXPECT MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN AR WL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEED ADVY
CRITERIA MON AFTN...BUT WL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE ADVY ATTM.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FCST.  MODELS CONT TO
INDICATE NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER AR AND PROVIDING RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT. DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY
ALONG A SAGGING COLD FRONT.

HAVE LEFT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM THOUGH CLOUD COVER/RAIN
MAY VERY WELL RESULT IN SOME DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT IN
ARKANSAS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BRING VERY HOT CONDITIONS TO THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE MID 90S IN THE
NORTHEAST TO 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. THESE READINGS
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM 105 TO 115 DEGREES.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY. PEOPLE NEED TO TAKE THE
HEAT SERIOUSLY. HEAT IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN THE
UNITED STATES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY IN
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN. GUSTS
COULD EXCEED 70 MPH...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DOWN TREES AND POWER
LINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS WILL CREATE A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL.

PRECEDING THE FRONT...IT WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER
105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE SO
HOT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AWAY FROM HIGH PRESSURE.

SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH AND
EAST...OR IN AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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