Wildfire in Arkansas, August 1 to 11, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1236 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WILL BE
TOTALLY DISSIPATED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WARM
AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ONLY
CHANGE THIS EVENING WILL BE TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REGION FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE AS RAIN DID FALL OVER PARTS OF THE STATE
AND DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011/

AVIATION...

CONVECTION IS DEFINITELY ON THE DECLINE THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TEMPORARY -TSRA AT KHOT THROUGH ROUGHLY 02Z...WITH MVFR VSBY THE
MAIN FLIGHT RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE NO CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL THREAT CONVECTION IN
SRN MISSOURI COULD SLIP INTO NRN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT...LIKE LAST
NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO LEAVE IT OUT OF
TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPBF AND KLLQ AS THEY REMAINED DRY TODAY. ELSEWHERE MVFR FOG IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KHRO...KBPK...KHOT AND KLIT...ALL OF WHICH
RECEIVED AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN IN TODAY/S STORMS. TOMORROW
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A FEW-SCT050 CU FIELD
DEVELOPING AROUND 17Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH 4-6KT
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP AFTER 14Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
OPPRESSIVE HEAT WAS ALSO THE STORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPS OVER 100 BY NOON. THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH
OF THE STATE WAS SEEING UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S...AND DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE EXCEPTION HOWEVER IS SOME OF THE NRN
COUNTIES WHERE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER FROM EARLY MORNING PRECIP HAS
KEPT TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. THE ONGOING SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH SOME STRONG...MAYBE SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
PERSISTENT...AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES PARKED OVERHEAD. UPPER 90S...TO LOW 100S WILL BE
LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH WED POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST AS WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTH TO SWRLY. DRIER AIR FROM THE SW...COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS EASILY WARMING TO 100
OR MORE AT MOST LOCATIONS WED AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE OZARKS MAY REMAIN IN THE 90S HOWEVER. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
TEMPS AROUND 105..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SW AND ALONG THE AR
RIVER VALLEY REGION WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
REMAIN HIGH...WITH MAINLY MID 70S TO LOW 80S SEEN. HEAT INDICES WILL
REMAIN DANGEROUSLY HIGH...WITH 105-115 LIKELY. SO HAVE DECIDED TO
EXTEND HEAT ADV THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVENING...THOUGH AN EXTENSION
LATER IN THE WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT POPS TO
REMAIN LOW WITH THIS RIDGE...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON HRS EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH VERY HOT AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A 100 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL/WESTERN ARKANSAS. MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES NECESSARY.

THE HIGH WILL BE LEAST DOMINANT IN EASTERN ARKANSAS. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EAST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
TOWARD THE ROCKIES. IF THIS HAPPENS...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE SO HOT
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL PAN
OUT...BUT WILL MONITOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     99  74 100  79 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR        102  78 103  80 /  20  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       99  74 100  77 /  10  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR   101  78 103  80 /  10  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR 102  77 103  80 /  10  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     99  76 101  79 /  20  10  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR     102  77 102  79 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  99  74 101  77 /  10  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        99  73 100  77 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     99  77 102  80 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR  103  77 104  80 /  10  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         99  76 100  78 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      98  77 100  78 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
736 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
736 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUACHITA COUNTY THROUGH
ROUGHLY 830 OR 900 PM BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAINS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEY DISSIPATE.

OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL DRIVE MOISTURE TOWARD
THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FORMS WILL BE
SOUTH OF ARKANSAS.

SUBSEQUENTLY THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDS...AND IT WILL HEAT UP.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED
105 DEGREES. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

64