Blizzard in Alaska, February 8, 2011

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 120 HOURS. NAM STRUGGLING WITH
SECOND PACIFIC LOW. GFS EC SOLUTION PREFERRED THROUGH THE SHORT AND
MID TERM. HPC PREFERRED IN THE LONG RANGE.

.UPPER LEVELS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF...NORTH PACIFIC LOWS.
STRONG 500 MB LOW CENTER
850 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE...BRISTOL BAY...NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT COOL
AGAIN BEGINNING THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORT WAVE.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS...
983 MB SURFACE LOW ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA LATER THIS MORNING. LOW WILL WEAKEN TO 998 MB
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM BY LATE THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT PRESSES INLAND...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE
CANADAS NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY THURSDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS FULLY OCCLUDED AND PRESENTLY EXTENDS IN AN ARC
FROM THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...EASTERN BERING
SEA AND BRISTOL BAY...AND KODIAK ISLAND. FRONT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY DISORGANIZE ONCE IT MOVES INLAND LATE THIS
EVENING.
OUT WEST...A WEAK 1010 MB LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TODAY AND DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
WINDY WET AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. OUT
WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TODAY AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN DOWN
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS ALONG THE REAR FLANK OF THE
NORTHEASTWARD MOVING LOW.
GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS LOW CENTER MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING ALONG THE GULF COAST...KODIAK
ISLAND AND BRISTOL BAY REGION. GRADIENT HOLDS THROUGH AFTERNOON THEN
GRADUALLY RELAXES OVERNIGHT. STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS
THROUGH THE USUAL CHANNELED AREAS...KNIK VALLEY...PORTAGE
VALLEY...TURNAGAIN ARM...SOUTHERN COOK INLET...SHELIKOF STRAIT WILL
DROP OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT. EAST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY ZONE MAY REACH MINIMUM HURRICANE FORCE THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING
AROUND THE TOP OF THE ADVANCING LOW.
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS AND A MIX INLAND...EXCEPT FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN ENTIRELY SNOW. POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT EAST OF BETHEL AND SOUTHWEST OF SLEETMUTE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND TREND TOWARD SNOW LATE
THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SECOND NORTH PACIFIC STORM IS CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST. LOW
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND ON
THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY FRIDAY. MORE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
ONCE LOW POSITIONS ITSELF IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE GULF FRIDAY
NIGHT IT WILL BEGIN TO DRAW DOWN COLDER DRIER AIR DOWN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.
MEANWHILE OUT WEST...ANOTHER MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 161
MARINE...STORM 130
         GALE 120 125 132 138 140 141 150 160 170 172 175 176 179
              351 352 411 413 414
         HEAVY SPRAY 179 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ASB FEB 11