Below normal precipitation during the month of February brought no relief to the drought conditions across portions of east central Alabama. Although 3-6 inches of rain fell, there were no significant changes in drought conditions.
Every event with a place to put it; 12 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BMX wrote it up.
Below normal precipitation during the month of February brought no relief to the drought conditions across portions of east central Alabama. Although 3-6 inches of rain fell, there were no significant changes in drought conditions. Severe drought (D2) conditions persisted to the right of a line from Goshen to Mount Meigs to Santuck to Alexander City to Wadley to Rock Mills.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Birmingham, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:35 PM CST, 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1135 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 .UPDATE...06Z AVIATION. && .DISCUSSION...A RATHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS ALABAMA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF IS WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAIN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LITTLE OR WEAK FORCING. CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. SOUTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LITTLE OR NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. 58/ROSE && .AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG. ALREADY SEEING NUMEROUS OBS IN MS AND GA REPORTING FOG WITH REDUCED VIS AND IFR TO LIFR CIGS. CIGS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE HOLDING AT MVFR CURRENTLY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR BY 09Z. VIS WILL LIKELY DECREASE AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE REGION. A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SCATTERED STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST 03Z WED. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION SO WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS WORDING FOR ALL TERMINALS...AGAIN FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. BETTER TIMING WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON TUE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SUSTAINED SE WINDS OF 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING AND LASTING THRU THE EVNG HOURS. NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 2010/2011 WINTER SEASON. THE CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY. 19 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ROUND ONE HAS MOVED ON THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN BULK OF THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER IN GEORGIA...BUT ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA THAT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING A BOUNDARY...ONE COULD ARGUE A WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS MAY BE THE ONE FOCUSING POINT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AS LOW CLOUDS BUILD IN. ROUND TWO IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS NOON AND LAST AS LONG AS 9 TO 10 PM ACROSS THE AREA. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE RICHEST AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE A BORDER LINE CASE IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA. SO THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME STORMS. QUESTION HERE WILL BE CAN ANY ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUE AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA OR DOES THE ACTIVITY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES IN. LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE SIDE OF THINGS...SHEAR WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA...SO IF A STORM COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED THEN IT WOULD STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF ROTATING. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAY GET INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INFLUENCE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME NEGATIVES TO SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A WEAK AND MORE MOIST LAPSE RATES...LIMITED INSTABILITY...AND JUST A BRIEF WINDOW...IN WHICH THE RICHEST AIRMASS CAN WORK IN. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL OFF...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST. 16 LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY IS THE IN-BETWEEN PERIOD...THE ONE DAY WE GET TO BREATH A LITTLE BIT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BUT JUST LIKE THAT... ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND SLIDES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. UNFORTUNATELY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY UNEXPECTEDLY...THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIVERGE ON HOW THEY HANDLE STRENGTH... TIMING...AND ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH. THIS IN TURN LEADS TO IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS STRONGER IN THE INITIAL PHASES OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...WHICH MEANS THAT ITS ENERGY IS SLOWER TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. COMPARE THAT TO THE 12Z GFS...WHICH IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...LESS PHASED...AND NOT AS DEEP. THIS MEANS THAT THE GFS BRINGS A RETURN OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ABOUT 18 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS...BUT WEIGHTED MORE TO THE ECMWF. THUS...I'VE BACKED OFF A LITTLE BIT ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT HIT POPS REALLY HARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PRECIP TYPE BECOMES AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. I ENDED UP GOING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AS I THINK THE THICKENING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES (WHICH IS OFTEN THE CASE). THIS KEEPS THURSDAY NIGHT JUST WARM TO KEEP ANY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE COULD BE ONE LAST PRECIP AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE VORT BULLSEYE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PRECIP AREA IS THE ONE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND IS THE ONE I HAVE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT UNTIL THEN. /61/ && .HYDROLOGY...HIGH PRECIP WATER AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND SIGNIFICANT LIFT WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AREA STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT WILL BE ON THE RISE. AT THIS TIME...NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED. 75 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT... BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY... CLEBURNE...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE... HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO... MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH... RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA... TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 613 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 ALZ011>015-017>050-020013- AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE- CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE- JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY- PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA- TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON- 613 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM TUSCALOOSA AND INTO ALEX CITY BETWEEN NOON AND 10 PM TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
12 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Drought conditions continue for Randolph County.
Drought conditions continue for Tallapoosa County.
Drought conditions continue for Coosa County.
Drought conditions continue for Elmore County.
Drought conditions continue for Montgomery County.
Drought conditions continue for Barbour County.
Drought conditions continue for Macon County.
Drought conditions continue for Lee County.
Drought conditions continue for Russell County.
Drought conditions continue for Bullock County.
Drought conditions continue for Pike County.
Drought conditions continue for Chambers County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alabama in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Alabama, February 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 289343, 289345, 289348, 289349, 289350, 289351, 289354, 289355, 289356, 289364, 289365, 289373.