Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, June 7, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
129 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

.SHORT TERM /7 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY/...LOCAL AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AND
SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD.  MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
POSITIONING AND MOVEMENT ALTHOUGH NAM STILL A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC WITH
FASTER MOVEMENT AND LOWER QPF.  QUESTION REMAINS EXACTLY WHERE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL SET UP.  BEST BETS CONTINUE TO BE TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 77 TUESDAY MORNING AND FURTHER NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL SEE MEASUREABLE
PRECIPITATION.  STRONGER STORMS TO THE WEST AND NORTH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LIMITED VSBY...GUSTY WINDS AND
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING.

CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON TUESDAY BUT HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN OPPRESSIVE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND DAYTIME HOURS
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE PCPN CHCS ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED SULTRY SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS. MID LVL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PROGGED BY MDLS TO SLOWLY SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE
PORTIONS OF TX AS THE TERM BEGINS ON WED. WILL CONTINUE TO CALL
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF PCPN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ON WED ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TX AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ALONG
WITH STRONG LOW LVL JET DEVELOPING. MDLS THEN PROG MID LVL LOW TO
SLIDE ACROSS NE TX ON THU AND INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION ON FRI.
RAIN CHCS ARE ANTICIPATED TO END BY LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. MID
LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING TAKING PLACE LOCALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...RIDGE WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
AS ANOTHER MID LVL TROF SLIDES FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT THRU THE PERIOD WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 70S WHICH WILL PROHIBIT OVRNGT LOWS
FROM REACHING ANY SORT OF RELIEF RANGE. THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL ALLOW HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO
REMAIN WHICH WILL ACT TO MUTE DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
LONGER TERM. HOWEVER...DAYTIME READINGS WILL REMAIN HOT WITH LOW
TO MID 90S ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN FA.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RISE SLOWLY TO 4
FEET OVERNIGHT AND TO NEAR 6 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT CLIMATOLOGY/DIURNAL SUMMERTIME
ACTIVITY TO RESUME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LWR TX COASTAL WATERS DURING THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GULF AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
PROMOTE A MODEST SE FETCH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY
AT TIMES WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED THRU THE PERIOD. EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PROBABLE FEATURE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS AND SEAS
ELEVATE TO NEAR 6 FT OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES
WED THRU FRI FOR 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS RESULTING
IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY WILL FORM QUICKLY EVERYWHERE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING DIMINISHING COASTAL
COUNTIES FIRST AND INLAND BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE FOCUS
MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  89  81  89 /  20  40  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  90  82  91 /  20  40  20  20
HARLINGEN            75  89  81  93 /  20  50  20  20
MCALLEN              76  90  81  97 /  40  60  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  90  79  99 /  60  60  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  85  81  85 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SHORT TERM...RYDELL-51
LONG TERM...VIPOND-57
MARINE...51/57
AVIATION...51
MESO/GRAPHICAST...HART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1214 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-081100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1214 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITY BRIEFLY BELOW 3 NM. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 MPH IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ248>257-081100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1214 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AND END BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CONTINUED HOT AND MUGGY WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 112 EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS MAY WISH TO SELF
ACTIVATE ON TUESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
337 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

TXZ253-072115-
HIDALGO-
337 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HIDALGO COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT
EDINBURG...MCALLEN...SAN JUAN AND ALAMO...UNTIL 415 PM CDT. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

64/JS