Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, June 27 to 28, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

.SHORT TERM...
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS IT SPANNING
FROM TATUM TO TULIA TO SHAMROCK...WITH A PERSISTENT SCATTERED
STRATIFORM PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TRAILING BEHIND. THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS
WELL AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM HAS THE FRONT SPLITTING
THE CWA IN HALF FROM PLAINS TO CHILDRESS BY 00Z...WHICH GIVEN
ANALYSIS SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE. FROM THERE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT ALONG THE ERN ZONES WILL BE FASTER THAN THE WRN ZONES THRU
06Z. THIS ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHTS
STORMS...SEEN BY UPPER 60S DEW PT TEMPS IN THE SE...WILL HELP MOST
HEAVIER RA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PERIOD DEVELOP EAST OF THE I27
CORRIDOR. THAT BEING SAID DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE REST OF THE
BOUNDARY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...NOR CAN CONTINUAL POST FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...19Z RADAR IMAGE HAS A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...HAVE
FOCUSED POPS TO THE S AND ERN ZONES THRU THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
LOWERED POPS ELSEWHERE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO CARRY THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT LEAVING THE REGION IN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE. H500 LOW THAT WAS DEPICTED IN THE 12Z RUNS
YESTERDAY AND 00Z RUNS LAST NIGHT IS NOW NOT AS STRONG OR COMPLETE GONE
AS THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ALEX IN THE
GULF. STILL FEEL THAT EASTERLY FLOW WILL HOLD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE AREA...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OTHER CONVECTION...AND WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS MAY RESULT IN GREATER QPF
COVERAGE THAN THE 12Z MODELS HAVE IN THEM. DID OPT TO BUMP TEMPS
UP A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLOUDY
AND COOL DAY REMAINS A REAL POSSIBILITY...BUT LEFT POPS ALONE FOR
THIS PACKAGE.

BIG QUESTION WILL THEN BECOME WHATEVER HAPPENS WITH ALEX. GFS/GEM
BOTH CARRY IT ACROSS EAST TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF AND NHC TRACK
CARRIES IT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. ONLY REAL CONSENSUS FOR MID-WEEK
IS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED STORM
CHANCES AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL...BUT BEYOND THAT IT WILL
REMAIN A GUESS AT BEST. LEFT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FOR
THURSDAY ON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  81  60  79  59 /  40  20  30  40  30
TULIA         65  84  61  81  61 /  40  20  30  40  30
PLAINVIEW     66  85  62  81  62 /  40  30  30  40  30
LEVELLAND     66  81  61  79  64 /  50  40  30  40  40
LUBBOCK       68  85  63  80  63 /  50  30  30  40  40
DENVER CITY   67  81  61  81  65 /  50  50  30  40  40
BROWNFIELD    68  84  62  80  64 /  50  50  30  40  40
CHILDRESS     69  85  66  81  66 /  50  30  30  40  30
SPUR          67  89  63  81  64 /  50  40  30  40  40
ASPERMONT     70  87  64  84  66 /  50  50  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

40/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

TXZ021>044-281100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
551 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS DESPITE WEAK WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. IN ADDITION...HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES
COMING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
823 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

TXZ024-280145-
BRISCOE-
823 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BRISCOE COUNTY...

AT 817 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SILVERTON THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM IN SILVERTON.
GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.