Wildfire in Oregon, September 15 to 20, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
323 PM PDT WED SEP 15 2010

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR FEATURE OF INFLUENCE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST THAT
WILL DRIFT SWD AND OPEN UP BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW ON
MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS
TONIGHT NORTH AND WEST AS A LEAD IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO MOSTLY THE
CASCADE CREST REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
WELL EAST OF THE CASCADES AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE ASHORE...WITH SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE A WET DAY AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
NOTICEABLY COOLER SATURDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. 78

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SYSTEM WILL FINISH
EJECTING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH.
THE BEST LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST OREGON...BUT THE TROUGH WILL STILL TRIGGER SHOWERS OVER
THE CWA. THE EFFECT OF THE RAIN SHADOW AND DECREASED LIFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. MONDAY WESTERLY FLOW AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A FEW OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ALONG THE
CASCADES AND IN THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY A WEAK RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS. THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES THE
WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE GFS ENSEMBLE
HAS A SPAGHETTI PLOT BY THEN...I KEPT THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY.   COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY LOWERING TO 8-10 KFT OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES AFTER 16Z AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
LONGER AT KPDT AND KALW DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS INTO THE BLUES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING NEAR THE CASCADES AND ARE EXPECTED NEAR
ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  81  53  84 /  30  10  10  20
ALW  59  81  58  86 /  30  20  10  20
PSC  58  83  54  85 /  30  20  10  20
YKM  50  80  50  83 /  40  10  10  30
HRI  57  83  53  85 /  30  10  10  20
ELN  52  79  52  83 /  40  10  10  30
RDM  45  80  45  81 /  20  10  10  30
LGD  49  79  46  84 /  20  10  10  20
GCD  48  80  46  86 /  10  10  10  20
DLS  56  80  55  83 /  50  20  10  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

78/76/76

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1130 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2010

UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

ORZ041>044-049-050-501>506-WAZ024-026>030-501-502-161400-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
CENTRAL OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-
WALLOWA COUNTY-FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
1130 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL BRING LIMITED MOISTURE AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OFF THE COAST KEEPING ONLY LIMITED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A WET DAY WITH RAIN LIKELY AREAWIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE.