Wildfire in Oregon, July 21, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
325 PM PDT WED JUL 21 2010

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST WALLOWA AND GRANT COUNTIES...AND OVER THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 5 OR 6 PM THEN DISSIPATE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SWING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
EASTERN OREGON...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
OUR WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CASCADE
GAPS AND IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. GRADIENTS ACROSS THE KITTITAS VALLEY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (30-40 MPH SUSTAINED).
THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STAY NORTH OF THE KITTITAS VALLEY...
SO EXPECT WINDS THAT MIX DOWN WILL NOT PUSH THESE WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH
SUSTAINED. THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE WILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING FOR THIS AREA. IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE
WINDS. THE REGION LOOKS TO BE UNDER A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME CLOUD COVER TO MOVE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL OREGON LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EAST
PACIFIC. A LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SPIN
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OREGON ON SUNDAY. WITH UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
OREGON BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS MOVED NORTHWARD. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. MONDAY WILL SEE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS...WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST
AND NORTH. ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE EAST PACIFIC
WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
OREGON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN...INCLUDING KDLS...KPDT...KALW AND KPSC AS
A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH THE EAST
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOWER
ELEVATION WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS RADIATION
INVERSIONS DEVELOP. TOMORROW WILL SEE A DRY COLD FRONT CROSS THE
REGION WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH PORTIONS OF
OR/WA ZONES 609 AND 631 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ZONE
675 WILL SEE THEIR MOST SIGNIFICANT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE VERY
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ALL CASES, AM CONFIDENT ABOUT
THE WINDS, BUT DON'T SEE HUMIDITY GETTING QUITE LOW ENOUGH TO REACH
ESTABLISHED CRITERIA. NONETHELESS, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WIND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO DRIVE SIGNIFICANT GROWTH POTENTIAL
IN THE 1 TO 100 HOUR FUELS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS EVENT VIA HEADLINES AS OPPOSED TO ISSUING
ANY FORMAL STATEMENTS GIVEN ITS VERY MARGINAL NATURE. /JBONK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  88  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  64  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  60  94  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  57  90  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  91  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  62  85  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  45  87  41  89 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  52  86  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  52  87  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  62  85  57  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : YELLOW
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

90/84/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
254 PM PDT WED JUL 21 2010

UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORY

ORZ041>044-049-050-501>506-WAZ024-026>030-501-502-221415-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
CENTRAL OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-
WALLOWA COUNTY-FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
254 PM PDT WED JUL 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS
     GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...EXITING BY
EARLY EVENING AT THE LATEST. THIS SYSTEM MAY CAUSE A STRAY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAIN
IN UNION COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY IN
THE KITTITAS VALLEY...THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...JOHN DAY
BASIN AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WIND THURSDAY
     KITTITAS VALLEY

A DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCT
PDXNPWPDT FOR FURTHER DETAILS. PATCHY BLOWING DUST CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE.