Damaging Winds in Ohio, May 3, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A
RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA AS LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. THERE IS
BETTER INSTABILITY OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. BELIEVE THAT STORMS
WILL LOSE SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST OR HAIL REPORT ACROSS
EXTREME NW PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS
LOW. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
THEY WORK THROUGH THE FA. WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY
WHICH WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. IN ADDITION WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT
GUSTY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE NORTH WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. APPEARS THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. AND IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE FROST IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES BY MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED ECMWF
WHICH SUPPRESSES THE NEXT SYSTEM AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE ACROSS IL/IN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO
OHIO...AND THEY MAY FALL APART COMPLETELY BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL
OHIO. WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCSH AS ANY SIGNIFICANT CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE UNLIKELY. VFR WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH EITHER
SKC OR A FEW CUMULUS POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
620 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ045-046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-042230-
FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-
CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-
ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
620 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-042230-
WAYNE-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
620 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...MIAMI
VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
703 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

OHZ034-035-042-043-051-040000-
MIAMI OH-DARKE OH-SHELBY OH-AUGLAIZE OH-MERCER OH-
703 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MERCER...WESTERN
AUGLAIZE...WESTERN SHELBY...NORTHERN DARKE AND NORTHWESTERN MIAMI
COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 658 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING THE INDIANA AND OHIO STATE LINE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...UNION CITY...FORT
RECOVERY...ROCKFORD...ST. HENRY...COLDWATER...ANSONIA...CELINA...
VERSAILLES...BRADFORD...ST. MARYS...NEW BREMEN AND MINSTER.

ALSO...CHATTANOOGA...COSMOS...NORTH DAYTON...WABASH...SHARPS
CROSSING...ROSE HILL...NEW WESTON AND BURKETTSVILLE ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.