Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 23, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS
WARM FRONT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS ONTARIO
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
ALL EYES ARE ON A MCS THAT IS MOVING FROM IOWA TOWARD WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL RIDE ALONG A
WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN. THERE IS A WEAKER EXTENSION OF THIS WARM FRONT THAT LAYS
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. THIS BOUNDARY DIVIDES DEWPOINTS APPROACHING
70 FROM THE MIDDLE 60S.

A COUPLE QUESTIONS ARISE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY AS THIS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. WILL THE WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE MIDDLE
LEVELS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION BE ENOUGH TO
CAP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON? ALSO WHERE WILL
THE OUTFLOW FROM THE CURRENT MCS RESIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON?

AT THIS TIME HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 90
DEGREES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WEST. ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THE WARM FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANY ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. DID NOT MENTION SEVERE IN THE
ZONES AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE CAP THAT EXISTS BUT WILL ATTEMPT
TO EXPLAIN THIS IN THE HWO. SEE SPC SWODY1 AND WFO CLE HWO PRODUCT
THROUGH THE DAY TO MONITOR THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS NW PA TO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW OHIO. HIGHS MAY APPROACH RECORD LEVELS FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION BUT BELIEVE WE WILL END UP A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW THESE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NW PA. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS
MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE EVENING. SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL
EXIST FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LESS
MUGGY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S FOR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE SOME BY SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FOR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST INTO SUNDAY AS WE AWAIT THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IF CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO THICK
THEN HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR THE
REGION.

WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY...THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH CARVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS SHOULD BRING
IN A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AIRMASS. WITH THAT HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS
TUE. WHILE OP ECMWF AND GFS CLOSE AND CUTOFF AN UPPER LOW...MORE OF
THE GFSENS MEMBERS REMAIN AS AN OPEN WAVE. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER
OR TWO AND HAVE A SILENT 20 POP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AVIATION ISSUES WILL CENTER AROUND BANDS OF TSRA THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST BAND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD CLE AND MFD BUT
NOT TOTALLY DISSIPATE. THE NEXT ROUND WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE
LAKE MICHIGAN AREA AND MOVE ESE WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR TAFS
SITES ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z. AIRMASS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MIXED
TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NOT EXPECTING LOWER CONDITIONS
UNTIL SIGNIFICANT RAIN OCCURS. SOME HIGH END MVFR COULD LINGER INTO
LATE MORNING IN NE OH AND NW PA.

.OUTLOOK...SCT NON-VFR POSSIBLE LATE SAT...SUN AND INTO MON IN TSRA
AND LATE NIGHT FOG/HAZE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MI INTO ONTARIO AND TAKE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...SOME OF THEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT WIND WITH THEM.
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT/MEAN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOME WEST AND FINALLY NORTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES FRIDAY. IN GENERAL...SSE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM
FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL BRING BACK THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
543 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-240945-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
543 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA MAY GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT TO CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TORNADO.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE. AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90 DEGREES THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. WHILE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO FROM MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MICHIGAN.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.