An area of low pressure located over Lake Michigan and approaching cold front from the west allowed for a line of convective thunderstorms to develop and progress west to east across the region.
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The episode as NWS CLE wrote it up.
An area of low pressure located over Lake Michigan and approaching cold front from the west allowed for a line of convective thunderstorms to develop and progress west to east across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 2:53 PM EST, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 353 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN...BUT WILL THE BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. DURING THIS TIME...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS TRACK OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS INDIANA. RADAR ALSO SHOWING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR MORROW AND KNOX COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT A WEAKENING TREND HAS PERSISTED WITH THESE STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR THE FORECAST...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TONIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. INDICIES REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND GOING INTO TONIGHT. MOST CONCERN IS FOR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS SHOWING FRONT PUSHING TO EASTERN AREAS MONDAY MORNING...BUT LINGERED SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH AN END OF ACTIVITY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATIONS OF LEFT OVER CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR AREAS FROM YNG TO CAK AND SE. WITH THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER MILD ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW JUST MENTIONED HIGHER CHANCE POPS...BUT MODELS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIMILARITY IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE WAVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. IF THE CONSISTENCY CONTINUES WITH THIS SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY COULD BE INCREASED TO AT LEAST LIKELY. BEYOND THAT THROUGH MIDWEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS SO ONLY ADJUSTED POPS UP OR DOWN IN THE CHANCE RANGE TO INDICATE SLIGHT INCREASES OR DECREASES IN CONFIDENCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM CURRENT TEMP FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LEANED TOWARD WARMER MINS WITH DEWPOINTS AT LEAST IN THE LOW TO MID 60S PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THURSDAY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MANUAL PROGS HAVE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NRN INDIANA. MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE HOWEVER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEMS. EXPECT A GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY EXPECT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AND WITH THE FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN LAKES TOWARD THE AREA LIKELY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO TURNING WARM AND BEGINNING TO DRIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN WISCONSIN. AIRMASS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA IS GENERALLY STABLE/CAPPED AND SUPPRESSED. HOWEVER THAT WILL CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND NORTH OF THE AREA. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER SCATTERED CU TO TURN INCREASINGLY TO A BROKEN DECK AS MOISTURE INCREASES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING TO OUR WEST FROM SRN LWR MI AND LAKE MI S THROUGH INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. ALSO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN SWRN OHIO. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW DEEP INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS INDIANA WITH LI'S ALREADY -08 TO -10C WITH -6 INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM TOL TO FDY. EXPECT CAP TO BREAK 20-22Z IN THE WEST AND QUICKLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS NRN OHIO THROUGH 02Z. THIS EVENING A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE TAKES CIGS/VISIBILITIES TO IFR BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOWEVER HELD MOST AREAS TO MVFR AT WORST. .OUTLOOK...NON-IFR IN SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... WEAK WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NRN OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TURNING WEST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ONTO THE LAKE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUING FOR THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR ALOFT SUGGESTS STORMS HAVE A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY MORNING HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON EXPECT HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE...AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR TO MOVE IN ON NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL GET WAVE UP TO 2 TO 4 FEET DURING THE DAY AND WILL NEED TO WATCH IF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE A BUMPY RIDE ON THE LAKE MONDAY. MONDAY EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AND DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS...HOWEVER BY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN OHIO DURING THE DAY. NOT MUCH FORCING ON THE LAKE WED AND THURS HOWEVER FRIDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...ABE NEAR TERM...ABE SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...TK MARINE...TK
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 549 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010 LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047- 089-PAZ001>003-191000- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY- MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH- THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH- AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA- ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD- OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND- HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD- RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX- ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA- 549 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA EVERY OTHER DAY OR SO AND WILL LIKELY TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD BE SEVERE...MOST LIKELY SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 152 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:00 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed three weeping willow trees.
Thunderstorm winds downed two large limbs.
Thunderstorm winds downed one large tree.
A thunderstorm wind gust was estimated at 60 MPH.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, July 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 240102, 240106, 240104, 240109.