Flash Flood in Ohio, July 13, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
920 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH IN THE MID AND UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...KEEPING WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT THE TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FLAREUP OF WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE WEST...BUT MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO...WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL WAIT TIL LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RADAR IS INDICATING
THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM DIURNAL HEATING
IN THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS. AT THIS POINT...STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE TO DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
EXPECTING BULK OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF AFTER
SUNSET...WITH A WARM...MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...NOT REALLY
EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE TUESDAY EITHER AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...AND
HIGH PW VALUES OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...SHOULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...SPC HAS THE REGION IN GENERAL THUNDER FOR TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOMORROW NIGHT
FROM NORTH/WEST TO SOUTH/EAST AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTS TO
SWING THROUGH THE REGION. NAM STILL APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS WITH PUSHING THIS TROUGH EAST OF THE REGION...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH QUICKER CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH EXITING UPPER TROF TUES NIGHT.
12Z NAM STILL SEEMS SLUGGISH IN PULLING THE TROF THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS...SIDING WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH SHORT
TERM. WITH BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LEAVING THE REGION. WITH PW
VALUES MAXING OUT AROUND 1.8 INCHES WEDS AFTERNOON AND A WEAK
THETA-E RIDGE PROGRESSING NW TO SE...KEPT SLIGHT AND SOME CHANCE
POPS IN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.

THURSDAY PROVIDES SOMEWHAT OF A RESPITE AFTER THE RECENT UNSETTLED
WEATHER...WITH A 500MB HIGH NUDGING IN FROM THE SW. THIS UPPER HIGH
WILL LARGELY SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE DAY
THURS. HOWEVER...WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
AND SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE EAST...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
MNT COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE THURS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. FROM FRI TO SAT THE BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO
PROGRESS THROUGH CWA WITH WEAK POST FRONTAL FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS.
06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOWING CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND STRUCTURE OF THE SAGGING BOUNDARY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER...AS
GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE
BOUNDARY...WENT WITH SLOWER ECMWF WITH TIMING THE FRONT EXITING THE
CWA. THROWING OUT GFS PAST SUNDAY AS IT DEVELOPS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING UPPER TROF. STUCK WITH 00Z ECMWF THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRYING SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE YET
ANOTHER UPPER TROF APPROACHES FOR TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TUESDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG BY 06Z
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR IFR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE WINDS GO NEARLY
CALM.

UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF SOME DIURNAL HEATING. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS AFTER 15Z...LOWER IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SL/TAX
NEAR TERM...SL/JMV
SHORT TERM...TAX
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
414 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-130815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
414 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1134 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

OHZ076-WVZ009>011-019-020-130445-
WASHINGTON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARIETTA...BELPRE...PARKERSBURG...
VIENNA...ST. MARYS...BELMONT...PADEN CITY...SISTERSVILLE...
MIDDLEBOURNE...HARRISVILLE...PENNSBORO...WEST UNION
1134 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 11:15 PM...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR NEWPORT...SAINT MARYS...MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG.

THE RAIN WAS MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS CAN DUMP AN INCH OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES. SHORTLY
AFTER 11 PM...STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN PARKERSBURG.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE EXIT THE PARKERSBURG TO MARIETTA
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 11:30 AND MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THESE LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH TYLER
COUNTY...PLUS INTO RITCHIE AND DODDRIDGE COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 1 AM. THIS WOULD INCLUDE SUCH COMMUNITIES AS MIDDLEBOURNE...
PENNSBORO...AND WEST UNION.

LATE NIGHT MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ALERT FOR ENCOUNTERING POOR ROAD
VISIBILITY FROM SUDDEN DOWNPOURS. WATER MAY ALSO BE FLOWING ACROSS
ROADS...FROM OFF ADJACENT HILLSIDES AND FROM FULL ROADSIDE DITCH
LINES.

KTB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
105 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PARKERSBURG             39.26N 81.54W
07/12/2010  M1.27 INCH       WOOD               WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STREET FLOODING WITHIN THE CITY. MEASURED AMOUNT WAS IN
            AN HOUR - OUTSIDE OF TOWN - AT THE AIRPORT.

1245 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MARIETTA                39.42N 81.45W
07/13/2010  U0.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MINOR STREET FLOODING WITHIN THE CITY.

&&

KBATTY