Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, May 24, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF A DEEP SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL LIFT FROM NORTHEAST CO NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NE
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS UNTIL
NEAR SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. BESIDES THE STRONG
WINDS...THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF CO ACROSS THE NE
PANHANDLE INTO THE DAKOTAS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CONGEAL INTO A
LINE AS THEY WORK EAST INTO THE TERMINAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
COULD SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH EITHER ROUND OF STORMS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND ALSO CHANGING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME MID
CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAINTAINED INHERITED HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN OK AND WESTERN KS INTO NORTHEAST CO. CONVECTION HAS FIRED
ACROSS WESTERN NE/WESTERN KS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...WITH SOME WEAKER
ECHOES STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE FROM CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LAPS/RUC ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS ONLY WEAK
CAPPING REMAINING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ERODE DUE TO CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
MAIN WAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CO. THUS MAY SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND CAPPING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS SEVERAL SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC HRRR AND 4KM WRF-NMM SUPPORT
THIS SCENARIO. WITH 0-1KM MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 30-40 KTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE PER LATEST LAPS/RUC ANALYSIS...THESE
STORMS WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT. STILL LOOKS LIKE ADDITIONAL LINE
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

DISCUSSION...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. FORECAST MODELS SHOW A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL FORCE THE SHORTWAVE ALMOST DUE NORTH
AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING. AT
THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
WINDY DAY. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THESE HEADLINES AS SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
GUST INTO THE 45 MPH RANGE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND IT APPEARS THAT FORCING SHOULD BE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TODAY RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE VICINITY AND AN
ADVANCING DRY LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. ORIENTATION
OF MEAN WIND AND FORCING SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
BECOME LINEAR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST...BUT THE OVERALL LINE
WILL WORK EAST WITH TIME AS DRY LINE ADVANCES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONGEST EARLY
ON AND WILL GRADUALLY LOSE SOME OF THEIR STRENGTH BY LATE EVENING.
THEREFORE...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM
JUST WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH OUR WESTERN ZONES...PRIMARILY ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. MOST FORECAST MODELS TRACK THE
THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE SOME OF THEIR
PUNCH DURING THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT
EARLY ON SHORTLY AFTER THUNDERSTORMS FORM AND PRIOR TO THE
FORMATION OF THE LINE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE
OVER AREAS JUST WEST OF OUR CWA. THEREFORE...THE PRIMARY THREAT
FOR OUR CWA WILL CENTER AROUND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

SFC FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A
FAIRLY LIMITED CHANCE AS FORCING IS MUCH WEAKER BY TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH OF A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS REALLY DROP OFF RESULTING IN
REDUCED WIND SHEAR. THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS
OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THAT TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP RIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN A WARM AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN TO START OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL AVERAGING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

AVIATION/UPDATE...KB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1215 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
251200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1215 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR STRONG
SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND THEN WORK EAST INTO
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALSO...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF AN ORD TO
KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO STOCKTON KANSAS LINE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
822 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             1 E CAMBRIDGE           40.28N 100.15W
05/23/2010  M0.88 INCH       FURNAS             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

DOXEY