Weak warm advection caused a small area of thunderstorms to develop in south central South Dakota early in the afternoon of August 16. One of the thunderstorms gained strength and turned severe producing damaging winds as it tracked southeast across the Neligh area.
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The episode as NWS OAX wrote it up.
Weak warm advection caused a small area of thunderstorms to develop in south central South Dakota early in the afternoon of August 16. One of the thunderstorms gained strength and turned severe producing damaging winds as it tracked southeast across the Neligh area. The storm then weakened as it encountered slightly more stable air.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 1:13 PM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 213 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL AREA OF PCPN MIGRATING ACROSS SRN SD ASSOCIATED WITH BNDRY LYR CONVG AND UPPER JET ZIPPING ALONG THE SD/NEB...MN/IA BORDERS PER WV IMAGERY AND NETWORK PROFILERS. APPEARS THAT ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER AND HAS BEGUN TO TAKE A SLIGHT RIGHT TURN HEADING INTO NERN NEB. BIGGER ISSUE THOUGH IS NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TONIGHT. 250MB-850MB DIFF DIVG...INCREASING DPVA AND STOUT MID LYR WAA WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. PLACEMENT OF NAM/GFS MAX OMEGA SUGGESTING SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA MOST LIKELY TO SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH PWS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.5"-2" INCHES. NAM AND CMC RUN-ACCUM-PCPN ARE EVEN PLACING TOTALS APPROACHING 3" ALONG THE CWA/KS BORDER. THE GFS THOUGH IS LAYING HIGHS TOTALS IN CNTRL KS...WITH THE ECM MAINLY IN SRN NEB. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ON TAP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS THURSDAY EVENING. POTENT S/W TROF OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES THURSDAY AFTN WILL INDUCE SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE REGION AND PUSH ITS SFC REFLECTION INTO NRN IA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN REGION OF FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF MLCAPE/DEEP LYR SHEAR. FROPA SHOULD BE QUICK AND CLEAR THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND END UP EXTENDING ACROSS SRN PLAINS/LOW MS VLY LATE FRIDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER...UPPER HIGH CENTERED INVOF THE 4 CORNERS WILL STRENGTHEN AND AMPLIFY RIDGE OVER CNTRL CONUS/CNTRL CANADA. GIVEN THIS...OVERALL HAVE HIGH TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THRU DAY 7. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT FROPA INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR INDUCING SOME THUNDER...THUS WILL LAY TOKEN 20S. && .AVIATION... TAF SITES OFK/KOMA/KLNK 18Z TAFS WARM ADVCTN HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WRN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SD AS A WARM FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT DEVELOPED INTO NERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS SPREADING TWD KOFK VCNTY AND A TSTM TEMPO GROUP WAS CARRIED AT THAT LOCATION THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE OF PCPN WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVR ERN NEBRASKA TNGT BUT INSTABILITY AXIS EITHER REMAINS OR SHIFTS BACK MOSTLY W OF TAF SITES. THUS OUTSIDE OF TSTM MENTION AT KOFK...PCPN MENTION DID NOT INCLUDE TSTM...JUST CB IN CIG REMARK. BUT THIS TREND WILL BE MONITORED AND TSTMS COULD BE MORE PREVALENT W/EVENING PCPN. OTHERWISE AS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER AREA TNGT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR CATEGORY...SPCLY AT KOFK...TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. CONDS PROBABLY SLOW TO IMPROVE BEFORE 17/18Z AND PCPN COULD LINGER EVEN PAST THAT TIME. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && DEE/RC
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-170715- MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT- PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON- STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER- SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE- JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON- 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE QUARTER-SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE RESULT OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT SPREADING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM NEBRASKA CITY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM BROWNVILLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION PROBABLY WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. CHERMOK
The Omaha radar (KOAX), 178 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:20 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter estimated thunderstorm winds of around 60 mph downed some small tree limbs.
A storm chaser measured a thunderstorm wind gust of 75 mph on home weather equipment. The winds downed several 4 to 6 inch in diameter tree limbs in town.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, August 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 242308, 242310.