Rip Current in Michigan, June 16, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
357 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE IN WAY OF SENSIBLE WX ISSUES
TO CONTEND WITH IN TRANQUIL/DRY SHORT TERM PD. SLIGHT NOD TO GFS WRT
BETTER CAPTURE WRT STRENGTH OF SERN MO/SRN IL SFC HI AND MORE STOUT
MID LVL TROFING/PVU FOLD INTO NV AT MIDLVLS. RESULTANT PLAINS
TROFING...WITH RESULTANT EMERGENT CYCLOGENETIC PLAINS SYSTEM ON THU
AND STRONGER WEAK RETURN FLOW TO DVLP INTO WRN GRTLKS. STRONG SFC
HEATING WITH 925-850MB LAPSE RATES TO AGAIN INCRS IN EXCESS OF 9
C/KM TO AFFORD HIGH BASED CU AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL/SHALLOW PUSH OF
LAKE BREEZE INTO BERRIEN COUNTY AND FINE TUNE TWEAK OF WINDS/TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY...WITH WELL INLAND TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO MAVMOS AS
CU RULES/SFC DPS IN UPR 50S/ARND 60 SUGGEST ONLY SCT HIGH BASED
CU/ROBUST SFC HEATING...FOR A STRONG DIURNAL TEMP RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A DEEP ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTH WITH SEVERAL
WAVES FCST TO EJECT OVER TOP THIS FEATURE FROM A WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION NEAR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PLEASANT CP AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY GET REPLACED BY
HOT/HUMID WX ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL EJECT FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SUPPORTING STAUNCH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME CONVECTION MAY
GET GOING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ACROSS WI/EASTERN IA/NRN
IL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. MORE PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND ANY MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING/FLOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF
TO THE NORTH AND WEST...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE NW FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE 92-85H THETA-E
SURGE AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL SPEED/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL OPEN UP AND PROPAGATE EWD INTO
ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT SWD INTO THE
SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NEWD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SAT. VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTN AS AN EML AND 350-360K SFC-92H
THETA-E AIR ADVECTS IN SUPPORTING CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...AREA MAY END UP CAPPED FRI AFTN WITH ANY FORCING REMAINING
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. WILL HOLD ONTO LOW POPS FRI AFTN AS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WRT FRONTAL TIMING. IF CONVECTION ORGANIZES
AND GROWS UPSCALE FRI AFTN TO THE NW IT WOULD LIKELY TRACK INTO THE
FA FRIDAY NIGHT PER PROGGED FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND
HIGH PWAT/CAPE AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOME CONCERN FOR SVR WX...ALTHOUGH
ANY BOWING SEGMENT/QLCS WOULD LIKELY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATE AS IT
OUT-RUNS BETTER SHEAR.

HAVE LOW CHC POPS GOING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE MCS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED. THE PREEXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
LINGER ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF ZONAL
WESTERLIES AND INVOF A TROPICAL AIRMASS. CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL
MODULATE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NO SKILL THIS FAR IN ADVANCE WRT
PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED
SHORTWAVES THAT TRACK ALONG IT. AS A RESULT...FEEL LOW CHC POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WARRANTED GIVEN WET PATTERN AND LITTLE CONFIDENCE
IN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION AS MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVE PROCESSES WILL
DOMINATE. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO HINT AT SOME
AMPLIFICATION TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH RIDGING EXPANDING INTO SRN GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING MORE IMPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO FILTER IN. REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE...YET STILL ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH TUE/WED
HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18 UTC TAFS/...

SIG DRIER AIR CONTDS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND ERLY AM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG SFC HEATING RESULTING IN STRONG GT 9 C/KM
1000-850MB LAPSE RATES SUFFICEINT FOR MIX DOWN OF LWR 20KT GUSTS.
VFR CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PD. SOME ERLY
AM BR/SLIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL INVOF AIRFIELDS...HWVR GIVEN
XOVER TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S THRU PRESENT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIG
REDUCTIONS AND HAVE RELEGATED TO 2 HR TEMPO DELIMITATION ARND SUNUP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010/

AVIATION /18 UTC TAFS/...

SIG DRIER AIR CONTDS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND ERLY AM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG SFC HEATING RESULTING IN STRONG GT 9 C/KM
1000-850MB LAPSE RATES SUFFICEINT FOR MIX DOWN OF LWR 20KT GUSTS.
VFR CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PD. SOME ERLY
AM BR/SLIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL INVOF AIRFIELDS...HWVR GIVEN
XOVER TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S THRU PRESENT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIG
REDUCTIONS AND HAVE RELEGATED TO 2 HR TEMPO DELIMITATION ARND SUNUP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010/

SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SFC LOW IS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN. LAST ROUGE SHOWERS SCOOTING EAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS FOR TODAY AND
THURSDAY.  FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD SHORT TERM PERIOD AND A MODEL
BLEND HAS BEEN USED AS DETAILS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS UPPER WAVE CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRY CP AIRMASS
ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY WORKS EAST
FROM THE PLAINS...BRINGING RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING TO THE LOW 60S AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MAKE FOR
A PLEASANT PAIR OF AFTERNOONS...A BIT WARMER FOR THURSDAY AS
H92-H85 TEMPS NUDGE UPWARD. QUITE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS LOW TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO 60.

THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO REVERT BACK TO HOT AND HUMID.  AS RIDGING MOVES
EAST RETURN FLOW AROUND PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERN ANTICYCLONE BEGINS
TO DRIVE WARM HUMID AIR BACK TOWARD THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...PASSAGE
OF STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT TAKES PLACE AFTER SUNUP ON FRIDAY AND
TONIGHTS 00Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IMPACT ON THURSDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPS WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT FORECAST. WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPS NEAR A MET/MAV BLEND EAST WITH WARMER READINGS WEST ALONG
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...THOUGH AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF
MOISTURE SURGE WOULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL BOOST TO LOWS.

LONG TERM...

LOW OVER THE PAC NW THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WKN/SHEAR OUT AS IT
MOVES INTO CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW OVER ONTARIO FRI/SAT. LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FRI AIDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS AIRMASS AGAIN DESTABILIZES.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS
SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY
THEN...GOING CHC OF TSTMS CONTD WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO POPS. UPR
TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO QUEBEC/LWR GRTLKS ON SUNDAY BUT
ASSOCIATED CDFNT SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA WITH SOME
WK SHRTWV'S ALSO LIKELY EJECTING FROM PERSISTENT WRN TROF AND MOVG
EAST ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF SERN U.S. RIDGE PROVIDING SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING...THUS HAVE CONTD CHC OF TSTMS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

GFS CONTS TO INDICATE WARMER TEMPS IN OUR AREA THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GIVEN MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION, AND RATHER LARGE SPREAD FROM
GFS ENSEMBLE MOS WITH GFS OPERATIONAL MOS NEAR OR AT THE TOP OF THE
ENVELOPE, CONTD CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMP FCSTS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
GENERALLY IN THE U80S AND LOWS IN THE U60S/L70S FRI-SUN WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
347 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-172000-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
347 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010 /247 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-172000-
LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
347 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010 /247 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX