Michigan, 2010

Rip Current in Michigan, July 25, 2010

July 25, 2010 · NWS IWX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Strong onshore winds created dangerous wave conditions along the far southeastern shores of Lake Michigan. A 26 year old man drowned after being swept out by a rip current near Silver Beach.

The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.

Strong onshore winds created dangerous wave conditions along the far southeastern shores of Lake Michigan. A 26 year old man drowned after being swept out by a rip current near Silver Beach.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 6:28 PM EST, 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 25, 6:28 PM EST, 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
728 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. MOIST GROUND/CLEAR SKIES/DECOUPLING
SHLD LEAD TO SOME GROUND FOG TWD MORNING BUT WILL YIELD ANY
POTENTIAL OBSTRUCTION TO VSBYS TIL 06Z ISSUANCE IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
BNDRY LYR DRYING OCCURRING LT THIS AFTN.
&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

LITTLE OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS QUIETER COOLER
CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.  SHORTWAVE
HAS CLEARED THE GREAT LAKES WITH SFC FRONT PROGRESSING SE OF THE CWA
WHILE LAST WIDELY SCT SHRA/DZ HAVE COME TO AND END IN THE SE.
NORTHERLY WINDS DRIVING COOLER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH UPSTREAM
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. AS SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN TONIGHT AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD A REPRIEVE FROM MUGGY NIGHTS IS IN STORE
WITH LOWS NEAR 60 MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER IN THE EXTREME SOUTH.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND CLEARING SKIES PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE BUT FEEL THIS IS STILL NOT WARRANTED WITHIN THE GRIDS AT
THIS TIME. FOR MONDAY...NOT MUCH OF CONCERN AS ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
IS ON TAP WITH TEMPS FCST NEAR A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S UNDER PLENTY OF SUN. RIDGING SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA
BUT RETURN OF WARM MOIST AIRMASS HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH TOO ALLOW
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT IN THE LOW 60S BEFORE MUGGINESS RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM...

FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL BUILD WEST THEN
NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A COUPLE
STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA WHICH WILL HELP DIG A TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY END OF
THE PERIOD. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES AND BE IMPACTED BY WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEMS AS THEY DIVE
SOUTH AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM.

CONVECTIVE DETAILS TOO UNCERTAIN SO WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON MODEL
MEANS AND SYNOPTIC GENERALIZATIONS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE
BUT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN SUBTLE DETAILS AND WEAK SHORT WAVES
WHICH ARE LIKELY A FUNCTION OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND MODEL PHYSICS.
RELYING ON ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM 00Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR
FORECAST...WHICH FITS WELL WITH CONTINUITY.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR
TUESDAY AND NOW LOOKING GENERALLY DRY FOR OUR AREA WHICH FITS WELL
WITH CURRENT FORECAST. STILL SOME HINT OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TUE
NIGHT AND POSSIBLE WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH AREA IN RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS. THE NEXT
MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LOOK TO SINK INTO THE
AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM AS THIS REMAINS THE
BEST TIME FRAME OF LONG TERM PERIOD FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT RAINFALL.

MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON MOVING THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS EAST COAST TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. WE LOOK TO
BE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH CAN BE TRICKY AT TIMES AS
ANY UPSTREAM MCS WILL RIDE THE RIDGE AND COULD DROP INTO THE AREA.
SOME HINTS OF THIS IN MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS BUT THIS IS DRIVEN TOO
MUCH BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME
RANGE. ECMWF TENDS TO KEEP THIS CONVECTION WEST OF US UNTIL NEXT
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TYPE OF FLOW AND NO STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD A DRY DAY 7 FORECAST FOR NOW
WITH SURFACE RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL WARM TUE AND WED INTO MID AND UPPER 80S AHEAD OF FRONT.
SHOULD THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR REMAINDER OF WEEK ONCE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...T
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 25, 4:25 AM EST, 14 hours 26 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
525 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-260930-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
525 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010 /425 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT
REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-260930-
LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
525 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010 /425 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT
REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

Event by event

1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.

Rip Current, Berrien

When
July 25, 6:51 PM EST to 7:30 PM EST
Where
Berrien forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Coast Guard

Coast guard officials confirmed a 26 year old male died as a result of drowning from being taken away from the shore in a rip current. The male was reported to have been underwater for around 40 minutes before being pulled from the water.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Rip Current, Berrien2010-07-2526MaleIn WaterDirect

What these are

Rip Current
A narrow, fast current flowing away from the beach that caused a drowning or rescue.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Michigan in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2010

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 253872.