Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, August 4, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
330 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE THIS AFTERNOON DEALS WITH HOW LONG AND IN
WHAT AREAS TO EXTEND THE ON GOING HEAT WARNING...AS WELL AS PRECIP
COVERAGE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRI MORNING.

FIRST OF ALL...WITH ALL OF THE ON GOING HEAT HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE OPPRESSIVE EVEN PAST
7 PM AT MOST LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPS ARE NOT KNOCKED DOWN BY PM
CONVECTION. THUS...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WARNING AREA WIDE
THROUGH 11 PM CDT.

NAM/4.0 KM WRF SEEM TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SCT STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WILL LAG THE SURFACE TROF THOUGH. WE
ARE CONCERNED THAT OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES MAY HEAT UP INTO THE 94
TO 97 RANGE THU MORNING...BEFORE THINGS COOL A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCT CONVECTION BEHIND THE SFC TROF.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S LIKELY TO POOL ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT...COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH 105 TO 110
BEFORE COOLING LATER IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WILL EXTEND THE
ONGOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH THE DAY THU SOUTH OF A VAN
BUREN MO TO PADUCAH KY TO HOPKINSVILLE LINE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT IF EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND/OR CONVECTION MOVE IN EARLIER
THU...THIS EXTENSION WILL NEED TO BE CANCELLED.

WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCT POPS IN MOST AREAS THU WITH THE FRONT.
WILL ALSO NEED CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT OVER OUR SOUTH/WEST AS
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A MID LVL IMPULSE MOVING ESE FROM MO...ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT.

THEREAFTER...MUCH ADVERTISED BREAK IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD
ARRIVE FOR FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MID LVL HIGH GETS SHUNTED SOUTH OFF
TOWARD TX.

AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS BREAK WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS MOST
MODELS NOW BUILD THE MID LVL HIGH RIGHT BACK UP TOWARD THE MID MS
VALLEY DURING THE SUN THRU WED TIME FRAME. COULD INDEED BE BACK
IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY MON/TUE TIME FRAME...WITH ONLY ISOLATED PM
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE IS A REASONABLE SIGNAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH
OF WEST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION A CB IN KOWB
AND KEVV AFTER 21Z AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINIMAL
CLOUDS EXPECTED MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
SHIFT TO THE WEST BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-HENDERSON-HOPKINS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-
     UNION KY-WEBSTER.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BALLARD-
     CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-FULTON-GRAVES-HICKMAN-
     LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-TODD-TRIGG.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-PERRY MO.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUTLER-CARTER-
     MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     PERRY IL-POPE-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-
     WILLIAMSON.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALEXANDER-
     MASSAC-PULASKI.

IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GIBSON-
     PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

MEFFERT/KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1235 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-051000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1133 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD
STATE REGION WITH HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 115
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCATIONS SOARING TO AN INDEX
OF 125.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY HAVE DAMAGING
WINDS. OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER WEST KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
WEST KENTUCKY AND PURCHASE PARKWAYS.

HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
435 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

KYZ017-022-042245-
CHRISTIAN-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOPKINSVILLE...ELKTON
435 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

...50 MPH WINDS REPORTED...

AT 430 PM...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF HOPKINSVILLE PRODUCED
50 MPH WINDS...RECORDED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL. THE
STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND ALSO PRODUCED SMALL
HAIL. BE ADVISED OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH OR DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS IT APPROACHES ALLEGRE.