An area of slow moving thunderstorms caused flooding in Williamsburg on the morning of August 19th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
An area of slow moving thunderstorms caused flooding in Williamsburg on the morning of August 19th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 19, 7:20 AM EST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 820 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010 .SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND IS TAKING THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IS STARTING TO EXIT OUT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA AND IS CURRENTLY OVER AREAS THAT DID NOT GET QUITE AS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE UPDATE IS MAINLY TO REMOVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ THE NAM12...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF ALL HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL AGREE PRETTY WELL. THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW A COUPLE OF AREAS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 12 OR 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THE RAIN WILL ALSO EXIT THE AREA. BY MID MORNING THERE SHOULD BE ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS LEFT OVER. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE DAYS 1-3 PERIOD EXPECTED ON THAT DAY. THE ONE PROBLEMATIC WEATHER ISSUE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG FORMATION. AS OF NOW ONLY PATCHY VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN SHOWING UP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY LOW STRATUS OCCURRING ALONG THE RIDGES. AS THE RAIN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN VALLEYS LOCATIONS...BUT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL BE. WITH VERY SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS...ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 13 OR 14Z THIS MORNING. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR DAYS 1 AND 2. BASICALLY JUST TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SREF AND GFS MODELS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE THAT FOG FORMATION WILL BE FAVORED...SO AREAS OF FOG WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE GRIDS...FOCUSING ON THE VALLEYS AND AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL YESTERDAY. WITH AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO RIDE THROUGH 8 AM. ADJUSTED TODAYS HIGHS TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOLER METMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION AND THE SATURATED GROUND THAT RESULTED. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS FOR SATURDAY...USED THE GFS AS A STARTING POINT FOR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET AND AREAL COVERAGE. HAVE THE FIRST RAINFALL MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF RAIN OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. USED THE LATEST SREF DATA FOR TODAYS WIND FORECAST...MODIFYING THE DATA BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS. .LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE COMMONWEALTH/NORTHERN OH VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A WEAK SFC SYSTEM IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS WITH A WARM FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUN. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE MOIST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE MOIST WITH THE MOST RECENT RUN...AND HAVE OPTED TO RAISE POPS FURTHER INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY REASSERT ITSELF INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS HAVE A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/US CANADIAN BORDER BY MON NIGHT/TUE THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND EASTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF IS DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE 0Z GFS. IN FACT...THE 0Z GFS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON TUE AND WED. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT PERSISTENCE OF LESS THAN 15 PERCENT POPS TUE INTO WED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS SYSTEM AND POPS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER DATE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS...HPC GUIDANCE FROM WED AND PERSISTENCE IS COOLER THAN THE MOST RECENT 0Z MEX NUMBERS. MEX HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO WARM FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS EXPECT FOR WHEN WE DRIED OUT A BIT DURING THE FIRST 10 OR SO DAYS OF THIS MONTH. CONSIDERING THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND EXPECTED UPCOMING PRECIPITATION... IT APPEARS THAT ONLY VALLEY LOCATIONS/NORMALLY WARM SPOTS IN THE SW WILL APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED THE 90 DEGREE MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS SUCH AS JKL. OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND THE BANDS OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA TO MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INDICATE IMPROVEMENTS IN VIS AND CIGS GENERALLY INTO THE MVR RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OH VALLEY...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND KY 80 GETTING INTO THE VFR RANGE DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME...AND 18Z TO 21Z IN MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS LOZ AND SME SHOULD EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF DENSE FOG. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...AR/JP LONG TERM....JP AVIATION...JP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 838 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-201100- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 838 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS...MAINLY ON RIDGETOPS AND IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AR/JP
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flowing water of an undetermined depth made the 3000 block of Hwy 26 impassable in Williamsburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 243023.