Flood in Iowa, August 9 to 15, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
855 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2010

.UPDATE...
NOWCAST TOOLS AND VARIOUS DATA SETS SUGGEST DECREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION /MCS-MCC/ REST OF TONIGHT.
SEVERAL SFC BOUNDARIES ACROSS CWA ATTIM WITH ONE ORIENTED FROM
JUST SOUTHWEST OF KCID TO SOUTHWEST OF KMUT... AND ANOTHER LYING
W-E ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. FEW SHRA TRIED TO GET GOING ON
NORTHERN BOUNDARY EARLIER BUT FIZZLED DUE TO WARM LAYER ALOFT
NEAR H85 PER 00Z DVN RAOB... AND LACK OF TRIGGER AND PRESENCE OF
SUBSIDENCE... WITH WATER VAPOR AND REGIONAL IR SHOWING ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION LIFTING BACK UP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THIS IS MAIN FACTOR FOR LIMITING PCPN
COVERAGE REST OF TNGT... LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ALSO IN
GENERAL MUCH WEAKER REGIME TNGT IN TERMS OF WINDS ALOFT... THETA-E
ADVECTION AND LLJ. SO WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME PCPN DEVELOPMENT
OVRNGT WITH BOUNDARIES AROUND AND 20 KT LLJ VEERING INTO CWA...
BUT LIKELY MORE ISOLD-SCT IN NATURE AND WHILE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH PW/S OF 2.17 INCHES PER 00Z DVN RAOB... THE
COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AND NOT LIKELY TO
SEE ORGANIZATION LIKE LAST NIGHT WHERE TRAINING MAY RESULT. ALSO
WITH LESS PCPN COVERAGE HAVE NUDGED UP MINS A FEW DEGS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AND LASTLY... WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND AND
RECENT RAINS MUCH OF AREA AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE OPTED TO ADD MENTION
OF FOG. KEPT WORDING AS PATCHY FOR NOW WITH CLOUDS AROUND... BUT
CANT RULE OUT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY DENSE IN SPOTS... SO
WILL BE MONITORING.

..M^2..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
900 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-102100-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
900 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK
WILL BE NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SIGOURNEY IOWA TO MONMOUTH
ILLINOIS...WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE RISK THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL HEAVY RAINS AND THE RISK
OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE SECONDARY THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME ON SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100 TO 105.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
506 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE MONTICELLO        42.25N 91.11W
08/09/2010                   JONES              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO FARM. ROOFS OFF OUTBUILDINGS AND
            SHED DOORS BLOWN OFF. DEBRIS WAS LOFTED INTO THE TOPS OF
            SOME TREES. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&