Drought in Illinois, December 1 to 24, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE QUAD
STATE. THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EASTERN KY TO
THE GULF STATES. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE
LOOP. SURFACE OBS INDICATED SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ACCOMPANIED THE
WRAP AROUND. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP ALSO INDICATED SOME FLURRIES WERE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST SAT LOOP TRACKING INDICATES THE CLEARING LINE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT...THEN CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER DEW POINTS OF THE MET VS THE MAV FOR
THE THURSDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT SHOULD SKIRT ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE FA. HAVE OPTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE
TO INTRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR LATER.

ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL AT
ODDS ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
THE ECMWF ABOUT 18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THINK IT
WOULD BE BEST TO MINIMIZE ANY ERRORS BY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE AT
THIS POINT. THAT WOULD BRING THE FRONT THROUGH LATER SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT...SO WILL HAVE SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MID LVL
SUPPORT IS PRACTICALLY NON EXISTENT...SO WILL KEEP ANY CHC FOR LIGHT
RAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FRO NOW.

ANOTHER CHUNK OF COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES
MAY STAY IN THE 30S DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS
DOWN CLOSE TO 20 IN SOME LOCATIONS. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME...BUT NO MAJOR IMPACTS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. SNOW FLURRIES WILL PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING LESS THAN VFR VSBY THROUGH
THE VALID TIME OF THE TAF. HELD ONTO WRAPAROUND ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER
THAN MOS. OTHERWISE GUSTS SHOULD DIE AT SUNSET WITH WEST WINDS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE VALID TIME OF TAF. SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER THE
VALID TIME OF TAF WED.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...KH/GM
AVIATION...KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
434 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
434 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.