High Surf in Hawaii, March 2 to 5, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
700 AM HST TUE MAR 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
THE ALOHA STATE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...HOWEVER THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CARRY SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS. ADDITIONAL
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE NEAR THE ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS OVER ALL THE ISLANDS. THAT BEING SAID...REPORTS SHOW
THAT LANAI IS THE ONLY ISLAND THAT IS GETTING THE STRONGEST WINDS.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT LANAI IS SEEING SOME ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION OF
THE WINDS THROUGH THE PAILOLO CHANNEL. AS A RESULT...HAVE DROPPED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT LANAI.

WE WERE EXPECTING DRY TRADES OVER THE ISLANDS...AND OVERALL THAT IS
WHAT PANNED OUT. THE SHOWERS THAT WERE OUT THERE OVERNIGHT APPEAR
TO HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS MOVING AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS. THERE WERE A COUPLE GAGES ON THE BIG ISLAND
THAT RECEIVED JUST OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 8 PM
AND 2 AM. THOSE SITES ARE THE WAIAKEA UKA AND WAIAKEA EXPERIMENT
STATION GAGES. GLENWOOD RECEIVED 0.20 INCHES DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. RADAR SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE DOING MUCH..PARTICULARLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.

THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND TODAY...MOSTLY OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS...BUT WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS
MAKING IT TO LEEWARD AREAS. THAT DESPITE THE FACT THAT WATER VAPOR
SHOWS DRY AIR MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH STARTING FAR NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THEN THE HIGH STARTS TO LIFT
TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST. NORMALLY WE WOULD EQUATE THIS WITH
A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS...BUT ALL THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER THAN USUAL...SO THE
STRONGER THAN NORMAL TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.

SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE IN ON THE TRADES DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN THE FORM OF SOME WET TRADES. HOW MANY
OF THESE SHOWERS MAKE IT TO LEEWARD AREAS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE
WINDS AT THE TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE FOR ALENUIHAHA AND WATERS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN
DROPPED BACK TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINING WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT
IS DUE IN PART TO WINDS...BUT ALSO FOR SEAS.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL STARTED TO LOWER AT BUOY 51101 OVERNIGHT...AND
AS A RESULT...THE SURF SHOULD DROP. THE SURF WARNING HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KBDI IS AT 601 THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BRING RH VALUES INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TODAY.
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO THE WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR LANAI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES
OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR LEEWARD PORTIONS UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY.

&&