High Surf in Florida, September 3 to 4, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
324 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWARD...ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA (ENHANCED
SUBSIDENCE) WL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD AND TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GFS HINTS AT A MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH A
PERTURBATION OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
POSITION ITSELF OVER THE ERN HALF OF U.S. STREAMING THIS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WL INDICATE LOW SCT POPS
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH AND A DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED...THERE WILL BE A SHIFT IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN
WITH MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS AND
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST. LIKEWISE...SCT NIGHTTIME AND EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPS OR DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

.MARINE...A SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL (2 TO 4 FEET) IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF PALM BEACH
COUNTY TODAY WITH ONLY 1 TO 3 FEET REACHING BOTH BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COASTS. THE SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PALM BEACH TODAY (MODERATE
RISK REST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES). COMBINED SEAS MAY REACH UP TO
7 FEET OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY TODAY AND THIS EVENING...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE WATERS WITH A CAUTION
STATEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE NE SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LIKEWISE...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 4 FEET BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  75 / 30 20 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  92  77 / 30 20 50 40
MIAMI            91  79  92  77 / 30 20 50 40
NAPLES           90  78  89  78 / 30 20 50 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER
     INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM JUPITER
     INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...47/RGH
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
341 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-040300-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
341 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PALM BEACH ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK REST OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...
...SCATTERED STORMS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...
...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL OF 1 TO 3 FEET WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY, WITH HEIGHTS GETTING UP TO 4
FEET IN PALM BEACH WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PALM BEACH ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY,WITH MODERATE RISK ALONG REST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA.

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE
LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF YOU
SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER MOVE INSIDE UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE
PASSED BY.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
MARINERS TO REMEMBER THAT IF THEY SEE A WATERSPOUT, TO MOVE NINETY
DEGREES AWAY FROM THE WATERSPOUT.

TEMPERATURES: THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

WAVES: WITH A NORTHEAST SWELL OF 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS TODAY, THE
COMBINE SEAS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GETTING UP TO 7 FEET.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PALM BEACH
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 100S EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

BAXTER