Thunderstorms focused along a convergence zone indirectly related to Tropical Storm Nicole produced heavy rainfall and extensive street flooding in Islamorada.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS KEY wrote it up.
Thunderstorms focused along a convergence zone indirectly related to Tropical Storm Nicole produced heavy rainfall and extensive street flooding in Islamorada.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Key West, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 29, 2:45 PM EST, 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 345 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 .DISCUSSION...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS OVERLAID ON TOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DEEP LARGE SCALE MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS THE DRY AIR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AS FAR SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS WESTERNMOST CUBA AND ALMOST INTO THE LOWER KEYS ATTM. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AS OF 200 PM...WEAK TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED AT 23.5N 80.6W AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 MPH TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM BOGGED DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. .CURRENTLY...KEY WEST RADAR STILL DETECTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS AND THE ADJOINING FLORIDA BAY AND ATLANTIC WATERS OUT 60 NM. AS OF 300 PM...LONG KEY CWOP HAS RECORDED ALMOST 7.07 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT SO FAR...WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE MEASURING 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THUS FAR. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE REGISTERING SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM VARYING DIRECTIONS DEPENDENT ON THEIR RELATIVE LOCATION FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY IN ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST OFFSHORE OF THE REEF. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THERE IS UNANIMOUSLY INDICATE THAT THE DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL STILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED ALONG THE EAST COAST. VERY DRY AIR WILL CIRCULATE IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE DEEP AUTUMNAL TYPE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THIS TYPE OF TROUGH IS SEVERAL WEEKS AHEAD OF ITS TIME CLIMATOLOGICAL...BUT THE NET AFFECT TO GREATLY REDUCE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS 12Z MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH DROP PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT...1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES ON THURSDAY...AND ONLY BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....RISING TO BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...FOR TONIGHT...WEAK TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS...WITH RAINBANDS CONTINUING TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THESE CONTINUE TO DEPOSITING NEAR RECORD RAINFALLS IN SOME LOCATIONS. SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING...WITH ACTIVITY DWINDLING DOWN TO SCATTERED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST...A SHEAR ZONE OR WEAK FRONT SEPARATING MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS PER THE NHC FORECAST...EVENTUALLY AS THE TROPICAL ENTITY (NOW TROPICAL STORM NICOLE) WILL BE ABSORBED BY A MORE DOMINANT NON TROPICAL LOW OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ASSERT CONTROL...SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE IT WILL STALL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO REMAIN FROM ROUGHLY 35N 70W SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CUBA. THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSEASONABLY DRY PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER AND FIRST DAYS OF OCTOBER FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE DRIEST AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES. SO WILL BE FORECASTING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. POPS MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED ON THE NEXT CYCLE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT CAN AFFORD TO WAIT A CYCLE BEFORE DOING THIS. .EXTENDED...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL ELONGATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE TROPICAL AIR TO THE EAST IS PROGGED TO MOVE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE REINTRODUCED CHANCE POPS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MOVING NORTHWEST. THIS IS TYPICAL OF EARLY OCTOBER...SO WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS THIS BECOMES CLOSER IN TIME. && .MARINE...WEAK TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ELSEWHERE. AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINE MAY STILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TONIGHT AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATE TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ON SATURDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. && .AVIATION...HEAVIER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NICOLE HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE ISLAND TERMINALS. ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DELIVER PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO THE ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY...OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...TURNING TURNING NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 77 88 78 87 78 / 40 20 10 10 10 MARATHON 77 89 78 88 78 / 60 20 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING && PUBLIC/MARINE...............DAF RADAR/STATEMENTS/MEDIA......11/DR AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........APA DATA COLLECTION/MEDIA.......PARKE/DR VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1045 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 UPDATED TO REMOVE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-301000- MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS- FLORIDA BAY-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM- GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT- OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM- CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM- WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM- OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT- CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT- WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT- KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM- 1045 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN... TROPICAL STORM NICOLE NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WELL EAST OF OUR SERVICE AREA. HENCE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. HOWEVER...EAST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS...SUBSEQUENTLY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE THE CONCERN ON SOME ROADWAYS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND GUSTY WINDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. APA
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall caused extensive street flooding over Lower and Upper Matecumbe Keys within the Village of Islamorada. Water entered one home on Lower Matecumbe Key, causing one family to be temporarily displaced.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 261943.