High Surf in Florida, September 19, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NORTHEAST SURGE OFF THE SC/GA COAST IS CURRENTLY DRIVING A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE DIRECTION OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
GETTING A BOOST FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF THE SC COAST (PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY). THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE DRY AND RATHER
STABLE ALOFT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF THE SURGE CREATES AN
INVERTED TROUGH UP THE SPINE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS EXTRA
CONVERGENCE WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS
SURVIVING ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY OVER THE
INTERIOR OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREAS
ARE IN STORE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE MUCH OF THE DAY. COULD GET CLOSE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN EVEN DRIER
AIRMASS (PWATS LESS THAN 1 INCH) SURGES INTO THE REGION. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLEST ALONG THE COAST TODAY...MID TO UPPER
80S. INLAND AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP A VERY COMFORTABLE NIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 60S. DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY...BUT IT WILL BE A
RATHER WARM DAY OVER THE INTERIOR. SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG HIGH ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

ANOTHER SURGE WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME EXTENDED WELL OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LONG FETCH OF ELY WINDS AND
RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS BELOW 700 MB OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREFORE...POPS AT 20-30% SEEM REASONABLE WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE NE FL COAST AND JUST INLAND. GFS MODEL INDICATES
MOISTURE INCREASING OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FL THU AND FRI
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE BUT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHEAST SURGE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN RADAR WIND
PROFILES WITH 25 KT AT 1 KFT. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT. WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA OVER THE WATERS AND
SKC OVER REST OF AREA...MAY RECONSIDER MVFR CIGS ARND 12Z. HAVE
KEPT VCSH FOR SSI AND CRG FOR SHRA POSSIBLY MOVING ONSHORE EARLY
THIS MORN.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW 10
FT AT BUOY 41012 WITH PERIOD OF 16-17 SECONDS. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH COMBINED
SEAS NEAR 7 FT EXPECTED TODAY. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MONDAY
NIGHT AS SEAS AND SWELLS SUBSIDE.

RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS VERY HIGH AND ALONG WITH BREAKERS
INCREASING TO 6 TO 8 FT LATER TODAY...SWIMMING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
HIGH SURF ADV IS IN EFFECT THRU MONDAY ALONG WITH HIGH RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ON MONDAY RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS MAINLY OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WILL HOLD OFF ON
A WATCH AS THE DURATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN FOUR HOURS ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  63  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  87  71  90  73 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  89  66  92  69 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  86  70  89  73 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  91  63  92  66 /  20   0   0   0
OCF  90  65  92  67 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT
     20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHULER/TRABERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
505 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-200915-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
505 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND BREAKERS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SURF ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT AND
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

...ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY...

A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING SWELLS GENERATED FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY. BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET
ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS