Rip Current in Florida, March 30, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR METRO AND COASTAL ZONES OF THE EAST
COAST DUE TO STRONG MIXING WHICH IS LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOWER 40S AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S.

MOLLEDA/TINGLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010/

UPDATE...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES! WE'RE LOOKING AT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS TODAY AFTER A WET AND STORMY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER FROM OUR REGION AS A WEAK BUT SPRAWLING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES IN. THE RESULTING
WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS
OVER ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE ALL WATERS AT 10 AM, AND LEAVE A CAUTION STATEMENT
IN FOR SOME OF THE ZONES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC SWELLS ALSO APPEAR TO BE NOT AS HIGH AS
FORECAST AS BUOYS OFF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOWING NO MORE THAN 2
FT SWELLS AT 12 TO 14 SECONDS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS: HOW LOW WILL THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL? 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS VERY DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION LAYER AROUND 3000 FT. THE LOCAL WRF MODEL REFLECTS THIS
BY DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WRF HAS BEEN KNOWN TO CAPTURE THESE
CONDITIONS WELL IN THE PAST, AND EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE
STRONGEST MIXING TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE WIND. IF
THIS VERIFIES, RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WOULD BE MET. THEREFORE
WILL KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS AND ISSUE SHORT-
FUSED RED FLAG WARNING IF NEEDED. NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO WIND FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SW GULF COAST AND EVEN ADJACENT INLAND AREAS FROM
REACHING CRITICAL RH LEVELS. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /TINGLER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010/

DISCUSSION...NOT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT TO TALK ABOUT THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. THEN NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL TRULY BE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
GAVE US THE SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST
LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. THEN A STRONG SHORT
WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL IN TURN SHIFT
AND AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INCLUDING THE FL
PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GOFMEX
WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND PARK
ITSELF THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE SOUTHWEST SHORT WAVE LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST, THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC. ALL OF THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A VERY PLEASANT WEEK
WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS AND NO RAINFALL WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SPEAKING OF CLOUD COVER,
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVER US LOOKING AT IR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING BUT IT IS ALSO VERY THIN WITH THE MOON SHINING
BRIGHTLY. THEREFORE, WILL GO WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
FORECAST WILL GO OUT AS MOSTLY SUNNY.

MARINE...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY BUT THEN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS MORNING, THE WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. A SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK THEN
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ONLY FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR ONE TO TWO HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OCCURRING. IT APPEARS VERY LIKELY THAT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS. THEY COULD EVEN DROP BELOW FOR FOUR HOURS OR
MORE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR. BUT, AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED
AGAINST ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LARGE OF AN AREA MIGHT
EXPERIENCE THESE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-
     COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO
     MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
357 AM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-310400-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
357 AM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PALM BEACHES, MODERATE RISK BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE PALM
BEACHES TODAY DUE TO A NORTHEAST SWELL OF UP TO 3 FEET.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COAST DUE TO A NORTHEAST SWELL OF 1 TO 2 FEET. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST DUE
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

WAVES: SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM AND THE OFFSHORE
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OFF THE COLLIER COAST WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES: LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 45 DEGREES ACROSS
GLADES COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA