Lightning Strikes in Florida, July 14, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
945 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

.UPDATE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES, THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010/

..HIGH SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...
..DRIER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE EASTERLIES - TAFB
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE PENINSULA SOUTH TO CUBA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD TODAY...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT
2.2-2.3 INCHES. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE OVER THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED...MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE
HIGH MOISTURE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO). AREAL AVG QPF FROM
HPC IS 0.75-1.0 INCH...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2+" ARE LIKELY.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER.

OVERALL SHRA/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TONIGHT-THU
AS MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT. DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THU WILL FAVOR
THE GULF COAST DUE TO THE E-SE WIND FLOW.

MOISTURE RAMPS BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY...AS AN
UPPER TROUGH (TUTT) MOVES WESTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A
MID TO LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/INVERTED TROUGH. THIS AGAIN WILL LEAD
TO GOOD CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN...PW VALUES ARE FCST TO
RISE INTO THE 2.2-2.3 INCH RANGE...SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BOTH GFS AND NAM MOS SHOW HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY - WITH GFS SHOWING 0.5-1.0
INCH QPF FROM NAPLES TO WEST PALM AND 1-2 INCHES AREAS TO THE
SOUTH. NAM QPF IS 2"+ EAST COAST TO 1-2" GULF COAST. LOCALIZED
TOTALS LIKELY HIGHER. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS
FRIDAY...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO.

A DRYING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHEN THE DRY AIRMASS - SAHARAN AIR LAYER
(SAL) - MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. ECWMF CONTINUES TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BUT GFS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AIRMASS FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE EASTERN AREAS SAT WITH CHANCE POPS GULF
COAST. WENT DRY ALL AREAS FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW ONE OR
TWO SHRA/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

THE DRY AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL AIRMASS
MON-TUE...NO SURPRISE TO SOUTH FL! GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED ALONG ABOUT 55W EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE...OR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSTORMS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE
MODELS...THEN POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH LATER
FCST ISSUANCES.

MARINE...WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 15-19 KT RANGE BY THU NIGHT
INTO FRI OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  89  79 / 60 30 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  82  90  80 / 60 40 30 40
MIAMI            91  79  90  78 / 60 40 30 40
NAPLES           92  77  92  76 / 60 40 50 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...55/CWC
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1013 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-150515-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1013 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...
...HIGH RISK OF WATERSPOUTS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

WATERSPOUTS: THE COMBINATION OF A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE AND CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS IN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

FLOODING: EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS, LOW LYING AREAS
AND AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION: WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     WATER SPOUT      7 ESE FORT LAUDERDALE   26.08N 80.05W
07/14/2010                   AMZ651             FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            FLL TOWER REPORTED WATERSPOUT 7 MILES AWAY.

&&

RADER