High Surf in Florida, January 24 to 25, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...

...RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS NEXT COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...

TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
EAST COAST MOVING AWAY INTO THE ATLANTIC AND AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH DURING THE DAY. WILL
NEED LAKE WIND ADVISORY DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND PUSH QUICKLY NORTH IN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TONIGHT...TIMING BY GFS40/ECMWF/NAM12 PLACED THE FRONT MOVING
ACROSS GA/FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVER NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...MODELS KEEP THE STRONGER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY AND JET DIVERGENCE SUPPORT OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND LIFT IT NORTHEAST. STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS...850MB JET
DOES PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG WITH SPEED SHEAR TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...NORTH OF I
4...AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

MON...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORTHERN PORTIONS IN THE
EARLY MORNING WITH A SQUALL LINE PRECEDING IT. ALL THE MODELS
SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (50 KNOTS AT 850 MB) AS THE CONVECTION
REACHES THE AREA...WITH SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OF WIND FIELDS
DURING THE DAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND EVEN DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
LIFT JET...COUPLED WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT...
SHOULD ALLOW THE LINE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH SUCH STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS...FAST MOVING CELLS MAY
BRING A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OPTIMAL
FOR A BIG EVENT THOUGH AS SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S.

TIMING OF THE SQUALL LINE IS STILL A BIT MURKY AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SMALL DIFFERENCES. HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOWING LIKELY POPS IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. THESE
VALUES ARE CLOSE TO THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE.

TUE-FRI...TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT
OUT EARLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PULLED STEADILY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AIR MASS LOOKS MODERATELY COLD
WITH TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE THROUGH THU MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU AND THE RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING
TEMPS BACK TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. STEADY WARM ADVECTION
INTO FRI WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATING TREND. THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY
WITH GUIDANCE POPS REMAINING BELOW 20 PERCENT ON FRI AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTENING IS STILL PROGGED TO HOLD OFF.

FRI NIGHT-SUN...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW MUCH PHASING
OCCURS BETWEEN NEXT LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE AND NORTHERN STREAM SO
THE STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
FRI NIGHT/SAT IS UNCERTAIN. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING
A COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER MODERATE COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS IN THE INCREASING SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS.
VCSH AFTER 24/20Z WITH TEMPO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...G28KTS VICINITY
TS/SHRA AFTER 25/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...

***NOTE TO USERS OF BUOY 41009 DATA: A SERVICING MISSION TO REPAIR
NOAA BUOY 41009 IS TENTATIVELY PLANNED FOR WEDNESDAY JANUARY 27TH.***

TODAY-TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
MS DELTA AND GULF COAST. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE.

MON...STRONG WINDS SHOULD PERSIST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS ALL OF THE
WATERS...THEN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO BE TRANSITING THE AREA TOO...SO
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE VERY TREACHEROUS.

TUE-THU...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH/NORTHEAST TUE-WED.
SPEEDS SHOULD STILL BE 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE ON TUE BUT DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS WED AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING WELL
OFFSHORE ON THU SHOULD ALLOW FOR A 10-15 KNOT SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RH VALUES
SHOULD FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT TUE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON
WED AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  64  69  44 /  20  60  60  10
MCO  80  64  71  46 /  20  60  60  10
MLB  79  68  72  46 /  20  50  70  10
VRB  80  68  74  48 /  20  50  70  10
LEE  80  62  68  44 /  20  60  50  10
SFB  81  64  71  46 /  20  60  60  10
ORL  80  64  70  47 /  20  60  60  10
FPR  80  68  74  48 /  20  50  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
     MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-232200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
909 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL. CHECK WITH
THE BEACH PATROL FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN
SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD...AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BOATING CONDITIONS OFFSHORE WILL START TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING
AS EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6
FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

WIMMER/WEITLICH