Drought in Florida, December 1 to 31, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
910 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER ATLANTIC WATERS AND PORTIONS
OF THE EAST COAST TO REFLECT CURRENT INCREASING TRENDS IN PRECIP
COVERAGE. EXPECT MOTS OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OVER WATER BUT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD MOVE QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND
METRO AREAS...ESPECIALLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH...NOT SO MUCH ACROSS
MIAMI-DADE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

RGH

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER SOME MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
IN S FL. WIDELY SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCATION AFFECTING APF AND TMB TOWARD WED MORN. ISOLD
SHRA AND PERIOD LOWER CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH S FL LATE MORNING TO MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S TO SE TONIGHT... SW EARLY WED
MORNING... AND BECOME NW AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /TINGLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010/

DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO N FLA.
AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS TO THE NE, MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EXTREME S PENINSULA WILL SHIFT TO THE
S OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS S
FLA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SO OUR REGION CAN EXPECT ONE MORE
24 HOUR PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH THE LAKE OKEE REGION TO THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST
EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY TO HOLD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE 70S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE SE
CST, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80 OR THE LOWER
80S. MODEL FORECAST CU FIELD IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE MID
80S IN THE SE CST METRO AREA. IT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURN SO ONLY ISOLD TO
LOW END SCT SHRA COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED. THEN A MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
DECEMBER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO THE UPPER 40S COASTAL
COLLIER COUNTY AND THE 50S ALONG THE E CST METRO REGION.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE MID/UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL STATES WILL BECOME NEARLY ZONAL AS
THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC RIDGE TO
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF STATES AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEKEND. FOR S FLA THIS WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVE
COOL PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
INTERIOR REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATES. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
INDICATING THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT FOR S FLA.
HOWEVER, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING ON THE TIMING. BOTH MODELS
DO AGREE ON THE GENERAL OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND TAP INTO SOME
ARCTIC AIR BUT THE 12Z GFS RUN THIS MORNING DOES NOT DIG THE TROUGH
AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS EARLIER RUNS. SO IT IS CURRENTLY A WAIT AND
SEE APPROACH AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...THE WIND SURGE THAT CAME THROUGH LAST EVENING HAS BEGUN
TO DIMINISH AT THIS TIME AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
HOWEVER WILL BUILD BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH NORTH WIND DEVELOPING AT 20KT OR HIGHER. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY AND MOST OTHER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS S FLA DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN THE
PENINSULA IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE APPROACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BUT COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MAY PREVENT THEM FROM DIPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT. THIS
TREND WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THESE CONDITIONS
BEING MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  79  55  71 / 20 20 10 -
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  82  61  73 / 10 20 10 -
MIAMI            72  82  61  72 / 10 20 10 -
NAPLES           68  75  48  70 / 10 20 10 -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION/RADAR...04/AT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
800 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-010900-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
800 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

VISIBILITY: PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WHILE MOST LOCALES WILL NOT SEE ADVERSE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS TOWARDS DAWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS EXPECTED IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND IN THE ATLANTIC GULF
STREAM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.