Tornado in Florida, August 7, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ALL OF SOUTH FL ON MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND THIS IS PROVIDING DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...AND FLARING UP CONVECTION ON WHAT IS A
REMNANT OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING OFF THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
FL COAST. 07.12Z GFS AND 07.00Z ECMWF AGREE ON THE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING AND BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN THE MID LEVELS...AND
EVENTUALLY DOWN TO THE SURFACE...EITHER INTO AN OPEN INVERTED
TROUGH OR POSSIBLY A LOW. MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARDS THE WSW OR
SW...WITH THE GFS FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTH FL AND THE ECMWF
ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO OUR NORTH.

EITHER WAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE...AND
EVEN INCREASE...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PW VALUES IN THE
2.25-2.50 INCH RANGE. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FL ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH OR LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE PENINSULA. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON
RAINFALL EXPECTATIONS.

THE TROUGH OR LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTH...LEADING TO A
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HPC QPF SUN-MON SHOWS 2-3 INCHES AREA WIDE...IN LINE
WITH BOTH GFS AND NAM MOS QPF. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE EXPECTED. THE CONCERN WILL
BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING OF CELLS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES. LATER
SHIFTS CAN ASSESS TRENDS TO SEE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE SCENARIO LOOKS TO PLAY OUT TO
WHERE IT WOULD BE BEST HANDLED WITH URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES...AS
ANY EXCESSIVE RAIN LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...AS FAR AS PREVAILING
WINDS/SEAS...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...TSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT - ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH
COAST...THEN ALL AREAS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN THE
TSTORM RISK DURING THIS TIME...NOT A GOOD TIME TO PLAN TO BE OUT
ON THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  89  75  90 / 40 70 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  89  77  90 / 40 70 50 60
MIAMI            77  89  76  90 / 40 70 50 60
NAPLES           78  90  77  90 / 20 40 30 60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-080000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
208 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR/EASTERN SECTIONS...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE EAST COAST SUNDAY, ALL AREAS MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN
SECTIONS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
OR 45 MPH.

FLOODING: DUE TO A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS TODAY, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS COULD PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES WILL
BE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 TO 103 OVER COASTAL AREAS.

RIP CURRENTS: WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH ALONG WITH
A LOW TIDE JUST AFTER NOON, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

PS/DG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
443 PM EDT SAT AUG 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND GST     12 SE BRIGHTON SEMINOLE 26.95N 80.94W
08/07/2010  M46.00 MPH       AMZ610             FL   MESONET

            A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH OVER LAKE
            OKEECHOBEE AT MESONET SITE L005.

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 W PAHOKEE             26.82N 80.78W
08/07/2010  M39.00 MPH       AMZ610             FL   MESONET

            A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 39 MPH OVER LAKE
            OKEECHOBEE AT MESONET SITE L006.

&&

CARACOZZA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
501 PM EDT SAT AUG 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 NW PAHOKEE           26.90N 80.79W
08/07/2010  M39.00 MPH       AMZ610             FL   MESONET

            A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 39 MPH OVER LAKE
            OKEECHOBEE AT MESONET SITE LZ40

&&

CARACOZZA