Damaging Wind in Florida, August 22, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE HAS FUELED A GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALREADY. EXPECT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE WORKED OVER BY SUNSET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL LEAVE
A SMALL POP OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AND ANY LINGERING WEAK BOUNDARIES.

MON...A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TO 700 MB SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED AS ATLANTIC RIDGE PUSHES OUT WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH.
HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO
BE ABOUT A DEGREE COOLER. THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY WITH
LIKELY POPS.

HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION SHOULD BE DIFFERENT TOMORROW
AS ACTIVITY MARCHES ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM THE WEST COAST. LOW
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE SEA BREEZE...SO
THIS SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE MAY HELP TO FORM SOME
SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST THOUGH...WHICH COULD PUSH THE SEA
BREEZE ONTO THE MAINLAND.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...
A LARGE DLM CYCLONE OVER THE NE WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLC UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A +80KT H25 JET DIGGING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW JUST E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL PUSH A FRONTAL TROF DOWN FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE S FL PENINSULA THRU
MIDWEEK...WHILE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF AND THE RIDGE WILL
TIGHTEN THE PGRAD ACRS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING SW
FLOW.

THE SW FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ON TUE.  HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL TAP A POCKET
OF DEEP MOISTURE OVR THE GOMEX...KEEPING LCL PW VALUES ABV 2.0".  AT
THE SAME TIME...AN H50 VORT BAND ASSOCD WITH THE FRONTAL TROF WILL
DROP INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND PROVIDE THE MID LVL LIFT
NECESSARY TO GENERATE NMRS SHRAS/TSRAS.  FURTHERMORE...BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ARE PICKING UP ON SOME COOLER MID LVL TEMPS WITH H70 READINGS
BTWN 8C-9C...H50 READINGS BTWN -5C/-7C.  MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALSO
STEEPEN SLIGHTLY TO ~6C/KM...HARDLY EXPLOSIVE BY ANY MEANS BUT
STEEPER THAN WHAT HAS PREVAILED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

WITH A FRONTAL TROF DROPPING SO FAR S...ITS LIFTING INFLUENCE SHOULD
MAKE UP FOR THE LOSS OF THE SEABREEZE ON TUE.  WITH SUCH A HIGH
MOISTURE SOURCE IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PAINT THE
ENTIRE CWA WITH >50% POPS.  HIGH PRECIP COVERAGE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING WHILE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE M70S WILL
MAINTAIN MUGGY NOCTURNAL CONDITIONS.  WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS (N90/M/U70S).

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION THAT GOT GOING ON THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST
PUSHED THE EAST COAST BOUNDARY INLAND. EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WILL BE THE GREATEST FROM KSFB-KMCO-KISM AND SOME
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT ENDING BEFORE 00Z.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT BUT SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY IN THE TAFS YET.

MON LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MARCH ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM THE WEST COAST
THOUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME AFFECTING KLEE BEFORE 18Z BUT THE BULK
OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE 18-22Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...THROUGH MONDAY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP AND THERE
MIGHT BE SOME 3-4 FOOT SEAS OUT 40-60NM. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEA BREEZE WILL FORM...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY STILL PUSH ACROSS THE COAST.

TUE-FRI...
PERSISTENT TROFING ALNG THE ERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE S FL PENINSULA THRU MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN
A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.  TIGHT PGRAD IN THE LOW LVLS TUE/TUE NIGHT
WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE TO FRESH SW BREEZE.  THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT
WILL LIMIT SEA HEIGHTS TO 1-2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-4FT OFFSHORE...BUT
ALSO WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SHORT PD WIND WAVES. PGRAD WILL RELAX
BY DAYBREAK WED AS A LARGE STORMS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  92  77  90 /  30  60  50  60
MCO  76  91  76  90 /  30  60  50  60
MLB  76  91  76  90 /  30  60  50  50
VRB  76  92  75  91 /  30  60  40  50
LEE  77  93  77  91 /  30  60  50  60
SFB  78  93  77  91 /  30  60  50  60
ORL  77  92  77  90 /  30  60  50  60
FPR  76  91  76  90 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER....BRAGAW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ADDED WATERSPOUT IMPACT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1126 AM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-222100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1126 AM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL YIELD SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WITH
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL THEN PROPAGATE INLAND AND
AFFECT THE INTERIOR COUNTIES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
SLOW STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW FOR TWO OR THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THESE HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPORARY FLOODING OF STREETS AND OTHER POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID BEFORE STORMS GET GOING...AND HEAT
INDICES WILL REACH NEAR 105. TO AVOID HEAT STRESS...REMEMBER TO
DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS BEFORE ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A SMALL LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS. ALWAYS ENTER THE SURF WITHIN
SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE IN THE OCEAN.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SHORT LIVED WATERSPOUTS ALONG THE
COAST. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID CLOUD LINES WHERE SHOWERS RAPIDLY
DEVELOP.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. A FEW MAY AFFECT THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

LASCODY