Wildfire in California, August 7 to 31, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
918 PM PDT SAT AUG 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA HOWEVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SRN SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL FRESNO COUNTY NORTH INTO YOSEMITE. THEY
WERE RATHER ISOLATED TODAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE SUN AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OVER CA AND
DEVELOPS A WEAK CLOSED CIRCULATION. TSTMS HAVE DIED OUT...BUT WILL
NOT REMOVE FROM THE OVERNITE FCST DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW
AND VORT LOBE ROUNDING BASE OF TROF SW OF PT CONCEPTION. STILL A
SMALL CHANCE SOME COULD REDEVELOP IN LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET
AND WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE. FCST LOOKS GOOD AND NO EVE UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM PDT SAT AUG 7 2010/

DISCUSSION...SEASONABLE DAY REGARDING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR AS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DIVING SSE WEST OF
POINT CONCEPTION. CUMULUS HAVE ERUPTED ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FROM
YOSEMITE DOWN TO KINGS CANYON AND SOME TOWERING CU COULD BECOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPS
TOMORROW AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INLAND OVER SOCAL. WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP FCST IN ACROSS THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY ON
SUNDAY. THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN LESS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE THUS NO TSTORMS EXPECTED.
MODELS DROP A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE PACNW MONDAY
NIGHT BUT FROM THERE THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. 12Z GFS MOVES THIS
~565 DM LOW SOUTH TO ALONG THE NORCAL COAST ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME IT BUILDS A 595 DM HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
RESULTING IN A INCREASED DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA.
THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLNS PREFER TO KICK THE PACNW LOW EASTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN FROM
WESTERN CANADA. REGARDLESS...THE BOTTOM LINE IS A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE DISTRICT FROM MONDAY AND BEYOND. THE WEAK LOW MOVING
INLAND TONIGHT WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING SUNDAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE
UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK WHEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY AUGUST 8 2010... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN
AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...BINGHAM
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
322 AM PDT SAT AUG 7 2010

CAZ096-097-081030-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
322 AM PDT SAT AUG 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH
OF KINGS CANYON PARK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE THREAT EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD