Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 26 to 27, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS
AFTERNOON. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOWS UP NICELY ON AREA RADARS AND
IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE METROPLEX FROM NEAR
TERRELL TO GRAPEVINE TO DECATUR. THIS BOUNDARY IS DRIFTING NORTH
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED WINDS
NORTH OF THE FEATURE. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MIXING HAS REDUCED
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF GRAHAM WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO
SWEETWATER AND WESTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. SOME ENHANCED CU HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...ACTUAL
COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE.

MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE SUBTLE FEATURES IN
THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAKING TIMING AND LOCATION OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HARD TO PIN DOWN. LOCAL CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT BETWEEN 25-50J/KG OF INHIBITION REMAIN
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BEING MIXED. CONTINUED
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...MOST LIKELY ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...OR FARTHER
WEST ALONG TRAILING BOUNDARY FROM SURFACE LOW...WHERE CU FIELD IS
SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT. GIVEN 2500-3000J/KG MLCAPES...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LIKELY TO DEVELOP QUICKLY. T/TD SPREADS OF 30-35
DEGREES INDICATE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

AS COLD FRONT SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH...AND S/W ACROSS WEST TEXAS
OVERSPREADS THIS AREA...SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT ALONG OR SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN A THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. WILL
HAVE SCATTERED POPS THIS EVENING AND HAVE KEPT THE 40/50 POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS UPPER TROF LIFTS EASTWARD.

FORECAST FOR WED EVENING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL REMAIN
DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN AND WEAK RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. WILL KEEP SOME 10 POPS IN HOWEVER AS WEAK IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
STORM. OTHERWISE...TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  82  62  86  63 /  50  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              66  85  63  86  62 /  40  40  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             62  79  59  82  58 /  30  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            62  81  59  87  59 /  50  20  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          62  81  59  86  58 /  40  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            65  83  63  87  62 /  50  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           64  82  61  85  61 /  40  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         66  82  63  85  61 /  40  30  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            67  82  63  87  62 /  40  40  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DUNN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
522 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
522 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF A COMANCHE...WACO...ATHENS LINE.
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

LATE TONIGHT...MORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO EXIT NORTH TEXAS. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH TONIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
507 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

TXZ117-262230-
PARKER TX-
507 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL PARKER COUNTY

AT 507 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEATHERFORD...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HUDSON OAKS...WEATHERFORD
AND WILLOW PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3278 9760 3262 9779 3285 9801 3297 9785
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 317DEG 10KT 3285 9786

82/JLD