Drought in Texas, May 12 to 31, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
924 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...HOPE ON THE HORIZON. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS REMAINED CENTERED OVER NORTH MEXICO AND EXTENDED OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS...PROVIDING OUR LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES...IS PROGGED BY GFS TO YIELD TO BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AND REMAINING IS CONTROL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GOOD NEWS FOR US IS THAT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS. AND...SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY HAVE
OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND MISSING MID-
LEVEL LID. HOWEVER...PATTERN RECOGNITION LEADS THIS FORECASTER TO
BELIEVE THAT SEVERE WEATHER MAY IMPACT THE WESTERN BRO CWFA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST FROM MEXICO DUE TO
PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA
IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVES
THROUGH. WILL BRIEF INCOMING SHIFT ON THESE THOUGHTS...OTHERWISE
...NO GRID CHANGES MADE BEYOND TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...AT 7 PM BUOY 20 REPORTED EAST WINDS AT 14 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 4 FEET WITH A 7 SECOND PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS INCREASE. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED
AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
THEN MODERATE AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT REDUCING CEILINGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  91  77  90 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          76  92  76  91 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            74  94  74  94 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              76  96  75  93 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  99  75  95 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  89  78  88 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TOMASELLI-66
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...PHILO-58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-121100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1249 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES TODAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH DRY FUELS AND LOWERED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND RAPID SPREAD.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 101 TO 106 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THE RISK
OF WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ENHANCED. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE
MARK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE
TO THE INCREASE IN THE WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MARTIN