Drought in Texas, March 31, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
708 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTERACTING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INCREASED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY, RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
CWA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN RELAXING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT AND MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CWA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA, PRIMARILY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES, ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY REMAINING LIGHT TO
MODERATE. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON
THURSDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. HOWEVER
THE WINDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD, THEREFORE NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE AT 8 FEET WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO
19 KNOTS. WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA  RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS SOUTH
OF PORT MANSFIELD AND 20 TO 24 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE NORTH HALF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 9 PM
ACROSS THE LAGUNA AND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES INLAND AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD.  A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AT MODERATE LEVELS. SEAS COULD REMAIN HIGH UNTIL THE
LIGHTER NORTH WINDS MIX THE HIGHER SEAS OUT WHICH MIGHT TAKE MOST OF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MIGHT BE STRONGER FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT SPREAD SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE MARINE LAYER MOVES
INLAND. LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE SUNRISE.
CIGS RISE AND BREAK MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT MODERATE AND GUSTY LEVEL AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH
THE THE REGION. POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT
COASTAL REGION AND POSSIBLY KHRL AND KBRO BUT PERCENTAGES ARE LOW.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GOOD
CANDIDATE FOR WILDFIRE CONCERNS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH DRIER
AIR TO THE UPPER VALLEY ONCE AGAIN. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
CRASH INTO SINGLE DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...AND VALUES IN THE 20S WILL BE COMMON NEAR THE COAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT OB LEVEL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE...WITH 20FT WINDS SLIGHTLY LESS. IN ANY CASE...WINTER
CURED GRASSES AND DROUGHT STRESSED VEGETATION WILL BE PRIME FUEL FOR
ANY WILDFIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER BY FRIDAY AND
WINDS AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS....63
MARINE/AVIATION...59
MESOSCALE.......VEGA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
130 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

TXZ248>257-311330-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
130 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BE THE ISSUE OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

ALSO...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DUE TO THE HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL RESULT IN SHIFTING WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE WILDFIRE
THREAT WILL BE OF HIGHER CONCERN. DRY AIR AND LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES COULD BE AN ISSUE BEHIND A FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-311330-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
130 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO HIGHER
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS UNSETTLED THROUGH
SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND FRONTS ON TUESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL BE ELEVATED AT TIMES DURING THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.