Drought in Texas, December 15 to 21, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
929 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...REBUILT ENTIRE FORECAST FROM GROUND UP. DENSE FOG
WILL PLAGUE ALL OF THE BRO CWFA...EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THUS...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS TUESDAY MORNING PROGRESSES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...THEN YET
ANOTHER CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION AND CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST PREVAILS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR VERY LATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
A STEADY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SOUTH
AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER THE CONDITIONS ON
TAP FOR THE COMING NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&

.MARINE...THE 7 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATED WINDS WERE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 4 KTS AND SEAS WERE AROUND 2.5 FT WITH A PERIOD OF
8 SECONDS. DENSE SEA FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WITH WARM
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CIRCULATING OVER THE COOLER GULF WATERS. REFER
TO THE MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE DENSE FOG.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE WHILE SEAS
BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BETWEEN THIS
SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. WINDS
COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND IF MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THIS TREND. IN ANY CASE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...SEA FOG IS SPREADING INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO INUNDATE
MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD VSBY BELOW 1 MILE WITH PERIODIC 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE. AS OF 8
PM VSBY AND CIGS ARE AT VLIFR ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS AT VLIFR AT
BOTH KBRO AND KHRL. THESE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING
STEADILY WEST. FOG TO AND CIGS TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND INCREASE
IN INTENSITY LATER TUESDAY WITH SOME POCKETS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY OFFSHORE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL DAY OF TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LINGERING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  66  60  50  56 /  10  90  90  80
BROWNSVILLE          65  59  49  54 /  10  90  90  80
HARLINGEN            63  57  47  54 /  10  90  90  80
MCALLEN              63  57  48  56 /  10  90  90  70
RIO GRANDE CITY      62  56  46  54 /  10  90  90  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  61  54  60 /  10  90  90  80
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ249>257.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
155-170-175.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TOMASELLI-66
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...BOGORAD-59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
359 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-151100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
359 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN ONE HALF MILE AND AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE WILL BE COMMON.

DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. INLAND STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A MORE
SUSTAINED WIND THE COASTAL REGIONS. FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN IN THE
40S MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HEAVIES RAIN MAY FALL ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS
WHICH MIGHT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE LAGUNA AS THE FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE
REGION. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS THEN PROJECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY INTENSIFYING THE WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE
FORCE ACROSS FAR OFFSHORE WATERS WITH A GALE WATCH POSSIBLE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH SEAS.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ELEVATED LATER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.