Hail in Texas, April 12, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 143 CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 4 PM. LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR SHV TO WEST OF HOUSTON. EXPECT
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LINE TO BE MOVING INTO TYLER COUNTY
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS
INCLUDING VILS ABOVE 60 AS WELL AS SOME CIRCULATION. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-10 WITH DEWPOINTS AT KBPT AND KLCH NOW UP TO
69 DEGREES. KLCH 12Z SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH A HELICITY OF AROUND 500 M2/S2...CAPE ABOVE
2000 J/KG AND AN LI AROUND -6. SHOULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON ONCE CAP
JUST BELOW 850MB BREAKS. MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TODAYS GRIDS
TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
REISSUE ZONES AT THIS TIME. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009/

..THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 143 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

DISCUSSION...
AT THIS TIME...STLT AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO DEL RIO TEXAS. THIS LINE OF STORMS
IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

CURRENTLY FOR SE TX AND SRN LA...SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S AT THE COAST TO THE LOWER 60S INLAND
LOCATIONS. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COOL FRONT IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH.

ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE SPREAD OF STORMS INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEFORE THE NOON HOUR AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
AROUND THE NOON HOUR. STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING SEVERE WITH THE THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. STORMS
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

DRIER AIR WILL SPILL INTO SE TX AND SRN LOUISIANA TOMORROW MORNING
WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  65  80  53  78 /  80  30  10  10  10
KBPT  76  63  80  54  79 /  90  20  10  10  10
KAEX  75  63  76  50  75 /  80  50  10  10  10
KLFT  78  67  80  53  75 /  80  50  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
     MARTIN...VERMILION.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
     LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM
     CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-131030-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
519 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE GULF TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO END ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP TUNED TO
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS DURING THIS EASTER HOLIDAY
WEEKEND TO STAY INFORMED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.